伊拉克政府雄心勃勃地希望充分利用該國的石油和天然氣儲備。擴大煉油能力的計劃因與伊斯蘭國的戰爭而擱置了多年。更糟糕的是，如果無法得到外界的大力扶持，這些計劃的前景仍然不容樂觀。

　　歐佩克能源研究秘書處前主任Saadallah al Fathi在一份行業分析中指出，在與伊斯蘭國的戰爭爆發前，伊拉克是歐佩克第二大出口國，該國計劃在2008年開始的20年內新建5家煉油廠。當時，伊拉克的日煉油能力約為886,000桶。在那之后，新建計劃唯一的進展就是開始建造卡爾巴拉煉油廠。

　　他在分析報告中稱，一位匿名業內人士曾向媒體透露，伊拉克政府計劃建造的新煉油廠不是5座，而是12至13座，總煉油能力為每天1425萬桶至1530萬桶，并有望在未來四年內進行。

　　Al Fathi對該消息持懷疑態度。他也懷疑這位匿名人士有關伊朗將幫助伊拉克發展下游業務的說法，不過這些懷疑可能并不充分：伊朗現任統治者是伊拉克拉巴迪政府的盟友，有理由相信雙方已經認識到彼此合作將比競爭帶來更多好處。

　　楊曉武 編譯

　　原文如下：

　　Iraq Plans For Enormous Boost To Refining Capacity

　　Iraq’s government is ambitious and it wants to make the most of the country’s oil and gas reserves. Plans for an expansion of the country’s refinery network have been circulating for years, but the war with IS has put these on hold. What’s worse is that the prospects for these plans are gloomy unless it gets a significant amount of external help.

　　Before the war with IS engulfed OPEC’s second-largest exporter, plans were to add five new refineries to the network over a period of 20 years, starting in 2008. At the time, the refining capacity of Iraq stood around 886,000 bpd.

　　Since then, the only progress made has been the start of construction of the Karbala refinery, as one expert, the former chief of the Energy Study Secretarial of OPEC,notes in an industry analysis.

　　In it, Saadallah al Fathi quotes information from an unnamed industry insider who had told media that Iraq’s government is planning the construction of not five but twelve to thirteen new refineries with combined installed capacity of between 1.425 and 1.530 million bpd. All this is supposed to happen in the next four years, no less.

　　Al Fathi is right to be suspicious of this information. He is also suspicious of the unnamed source’s statement that Iran will be helping Iraq prop up its downstream industry, but these suspicions are not so well grounded: Iran’s current rulers are allies of the government of Haider al-Abadi, and it makes sense to suggest that the neighbors have realized that if they work together they may reap more benefits than if they try to compete.