據今日油價3月8日報道，盡管投資回報低于海上石油和天然氣，海上風能仍將成為能源轉型中一個越來越有吸引力的投資點。

伍德麥肯茲在本月發布的一份最新報告中稱，2020年至2025年期間，全球海上風能投資總額預計將達到2110億美元，海上風能市場對石油和天然氣公司的吸引力也將越來越大。

海上風電高級分析師瑟倫·拉森（S?ren Lassen）和姆海里奇·埃文斯（Mhairidh Evans）表示，未來5年，隨著海上上游資本支出到2022年穩定，到2025年有所下降，海上風電投資的增長將縮小與海上油氣投資的差距。

伍德麥肯茲的分析師表示，在歐洲、中國和南亞等一些成熟的上游板塊地區，海上風能投資可能會在本世紀20年代達到與油氣投資相當的水平。

目前，海上石油和天然氣正在與其他油氣項目的短期投資趨勢競爭，這種趨勢降低了2022年后投資前景的可見度和確定性。

在海上風能領域，投資主要取決于政府的激勵措施。分析師稱，截至2025年，風電產能的預估中有82%已獲得支持，或處于更高級的開發階段，這與政府激勵措施相關的部署，為投資前景提供了高度的確定性和透明度。

值得注意的是，到2025年，海上風能項目的規模將躍升63%，而這些大型海上工程的范圍和配套設施將吸引大量石油進入海上風能市場。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Offshore Wind To See $200+ Billion Expansion By 2025

Despite lower returns than offshore oil and gas, offshore wind will become an increasingly attractive investment destination in the energy transition.

Global investments in offshore wind are expected to total US$211 billion between 2020 and 2025, and the offshore wind market will become more attractive to oil and gas companies, Wood Mackenzie said in a new report this month.

Over the next five years, growing investments in offshore wind are set to narrow the gap with offshore oil and gas investments as capital expenditure in offshore upstream is set to stabilize until 2022 and then drop through 2025, said S?ren Lassen, senior offshore wind analyst, and Mhairidh Evans, principal upstream supply chain analyst at WoodMac.

In some mature well-established upstream areas offshore Europe, China, and South Asia there could be “a point of convergence in those regions in the 2020s where offshore wind investment will match oil and gas,” WoodMac’s analysts said.

Offshore oil and gas is now competing with the current trend of shorter-cycle investments in other oil and gas projects, and this trend lowers the visibility and certainty of investment outlooks beyond 2022.

In offshore wind, investments mostly hinge on government incentives. A total of 82 percent of the forecast offshore capacity to 2025 has been awarded a support scheme or is in more advanced stages of development, WoodMac’s analysts say, noting that the deployment tied to government incentives provides high certainty and transparency in investment outlooks.

Another point for offshore wind is that the size of the projects is set to jump by 63 percent through 2025, and those large offshore work scope and packages attract Big Oil to the offshore wind market, WoodMac said.