據今日油價網站3月10日消息 雷斯塔能源稱，以目前的油價計算，美國鉆探的大多數頁巖油井都將無利可圖。據彭博社報道，這家挪威咨詢公司表示，對100多家公司來說，鉆探新井將面臨虧損。

只有埃克森美孚、雪佛龍、西方石油和Crownquest五家頁巖鉆探公司鉆探新井可以保持31美元/桶的WTI利潤。

問題在于頁巖油井的性質：雖然啟動生產和擴大生產的速度很快，但也很快就會耗盡石油，因此鉆井商需要繼續鉆探新油井以維持生產，這也是大多數美國頁巖公司多年來一直在做的事情。不過，彭博社指出，這已經影響了投資者的回報，現在也影響了支出計劃。

頁巖油數據公司Friezo Loughrey Oil Well Partners的Tom Loughrey告訴彭博社：“公司不應該為了將生產設施保持在不可持續的水平而進一步投資。”

據雷斯塔稱，對于已鉆井但尚未完工的油井，情況更為樂觀一些。該咨詢公司昨日表示，美國頁巖地區高達80%的頁巖氣開采企業的盈虧平衡價格低于每桶25美元。然而，這已經危險地接近目前的價格。

雷斯塔頁巖研究主管Artem Abramov在新聞稿中表示：“如果在這場供應戰中沒有人會袖手旁觀，那么為了適當地減少產量并使供需恢復平衡，價格可能不得不降到這么低。”

“這可能是石油行業所面臨的最大沖擊之一，因為控制冠狀病毒的措施將加劇生產商爭奪市場份額的舉動。而歐佩克也明確表示，不會在2020年第二季度采取有力措施。”

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Only 5 Shale Drillers Are Still Profitable At $31 Oil

Most shale oil wells drilled in the United States are unprofitable at current oil prices, Rystad Energy has warned. The Norwegian consultancy said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that drilling new wells would be loss-making for more than 100 companies.

Just five shale drillers—Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Crownquest—can drill new wells at a profit at $31 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate.

The problem is the nature of shale oil wells: while quick to start production and expand it, they are also quick to run out of oil, so drillers need to keep drilling new ones to maintain production, which is what U.S. shale patch players have been doing for years. However, this has affected investor returns, Bloomberg notes, and now it is affecting spending plans.

“Companies should not be burning capital to be keeping the production base at an unsustainable level,” Tom Loughrey from shale oil data company Friezo Loughrey Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg. “This is swing production -- and that means you’re going to have to swing down.”

The situation is more positive for drilled but uncompleted wells, according to Rystad. The consultancy said yesterday that as much as 80 percent of DUCs in the U.S. shale patch have a breakeven price of less than $25 per barrel of WTI. Yet this is dangerously close to current prices.

If nobody blinks in this supply war, prices may have to go this low in order to properly reduce production and get supply-demand back in balance,” Rystad’s head of shale research, Artem Abramov, said in the news release.

“This could turn out to be one of the greatest shocks ever faced by the oil industry, as coronavirus containment measures will add to the headache of producers fighting for market share. And OPEC has clearly stated that it won’t be coming to the rescue in the second quarter of 2020,” he also said.