據Oil & Gas Journal網站3月24日報道 雷斯塔能源表示，由于Covid-19病毒造成的全球供過于求以及油價持續上漲，加拿大西部的石油產量將需要從4月份開始削減約11%，即44萬桶/天。該國的可用存儲容量將在幾天內耗盡。

加拿大西部的存儲基礎設施的最大存儲容量為4000萬桶。根據雷斯塔能源的計算，已經有超過3000萬桶的原油和稀釋瀝青儲存在倉庫中，根據目前的生產預計，到3月底原油和稀釋瀝青的儲量可能接近產能的高端。

因此，加拿大西部的石油產量將需要削減44萬桶（雷斯塔能源預計在疫情爆發前達到400萬桶/天），以平衡當地約3500萬桶的儲存量。這意味著鐵路出口的原油將至少減少75%，至10萬桶/天。

2019年第二季度，加拿大西部石油產量約394萬桶/天。

雷斯塔能源高級分析師Thomas Liles表示：“今年鐵路出口原油大幅減少，以及幾個重要油砂開采項目推遲春季維護，這幾乎是必然的，使情況更加復雜。”

3月11日，艾伯塔省省長杰森肯尼提出了減產的可能性，但省政府尚未正式宣布減產。如果出現政府政策導向的減產，這可能會適用于最大的運營商（就像2019年政府強制的減產一樣），但由于冠狀病毒相關的人員配備問題和需求不足，一些運營商可能會自行減產。

到目前為止，大多數運營商對近期的減產問題都沒有表態，不過一些主要運營商已經下調了全年的生產指導值。

加拿大也在其東海岸的紐芬蘭和拉布拉多近海生產石油，3月22日赫斯基能源公司報告稱，為防止疫情擴散，其West White Rose擴建工程已暫停施工。

吳恒磊 編譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Oil production cuts in Western Canada are imminent

Western Canada’s oil production will need to be cut by about 11% from April, or 440,000 b/d, due to the global oversupply created by the Covid-19 virus and ongoing oil price, said Rystad Energy. The country will run out of available storage capacity in days.

Western Canada’s storage infrastructure has a generally accepted maximum storage capacity of 40 million bbl. More than 30 million bbl of crude oil and diluted bitumen is already held in storage, by Rystad Energy calculations, and the volume is likely to edge towards the high end of capacity by the end of March under current production assumptions.

As a result, Western Canada’s oil production, which Rystad Energy expected to reach some 4 million b/d in its pre-coronavirus estimate, will need to be cut by a total of 440,000 bbl to balance local storage volumes around 35 million bbl. This incorporates at least a 75% reduction in crude-by-rail exports to 100,000 b/d.

In the second quarter of 2019, Western Canada’s oil production amounted to about 3.94 million b/d.

“Compounding the situation is the near-certainty of a steep reduction in crude-by-rail exports this year, as well as deferral of spring maintenance at several key oil sands mining projects,” said Thomas Liles, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

On Mar. 11, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney raised the possibility of production curtailments, but reductions have not yet been officially announced by the provincial government. If government policy-directed cuts occur, they will likely apply to the biggest operators (as was the case for government-mandated curtailments in 2019), but some operators may cut production on their own as well due to coronavirus-related staffing issues and demand insufficiency.

So far, most operators have not been vocal on the issue of near-term cuts, although some of the major players have revised full-year production guidance downwards.

Canada also produces oil offshore Newfoundland and Labrador on its east coast, where on Mar. 22 Husky Energy reported the suspension of construction activities at its West White Rose expansion to prevent the spread of Covid-19.