據天然氣加工網站3月23日消息 奧斯陸雷斯塔能源咨詢公司表示，如果油價保持在目前水平，今年新油氣項目的支出可能下降三分之二以上。

今年年初以來，原油價格下跌了60%以上，原因是為阻止疫情擴散而實施的旅行和商業限制導致需求下降，而俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯則終止了一項限制生產的協議。

如果布倫特原油價格保持在每桶30美元左右，投資可能會下降至610億美元（下降68%）。如果布倫特原油價格升至每桶40美元，投資可能會下降至820億美元，而2019年的投資為1920億美元。

截至格林尼治時間周一15時33分，北海石油價格為每桶25.7美元。

雷斯塔能源服務研究主管Audun Martinsen說：“上游企業將不得不密切關注其成本水平和投資計劃，以應對價格和需求下降帶來的財務影響。”

“公司已經開始減少2020年的年度資本支出，”他補充道。

殼牌和挪威獨立石油公司Aker BP周一表示，將削減20%的資本支出。

法國能源集團道達爾表示，公司將總支出減少30多億美元，其中25億美元來自勘探和生產。

雷斯塔表示，預計包括埃克森美孚在圭亞那附近的Greater Liza開發項目在內的大型項目今年仍將獲得批準。

由于自2014-16年上一次市場低迷以來所做的改善，北海大部分油氣田的產量可以達到每桶30美元，但大多數尚未獲批的項目都面臨風險。

咨詢公司的Neivan Boroujerdi補充道：“2020年的大多數最終投資決定都不在討論范圍之內。以目前的價格計算，未來五年我們預測可能會抹去近三分之二的開發支出。”

吳恒磊 編譯自 天然氣加工

原文如下：

2020 spending on new oil, gas projects could fall by 68% yr/yr

Spending on new oil and gas projects could fall by more than two thirds this year if oil prices remain at the current levels, the Oslo-based Rystad Energy consultancy said.

Crude oil prices dropped more than 60% since the start of the year as demand fell due to travel and business restrictions to stem the spread of the coronavirus, while Russia and Saudi Arabia ended an agreement to curb production.

Investments are likely to fall to $61 billion or by 68% if the Brent crude price stays at around $30 a barrel, and to $82 billion, in case the price rises to $40 a barrel, compared with $192 billion spent in 2019.

North Sea oil was trading at $25.7 a barrel by 1533 GMT on Monday.

“Upstream players will have to take a close look at their cost levels and investment plans to counter the financial impact of lower prices and demand,” said Audun Martinsen, head of Rystad’s energy service research.

“Companies have already started reducing their annual capital spending for 2020,” he added.

Anglo-Dutch major Shell and Norwegian independent oil firm Aker BP, 30% owned by BP, said on Monday they would cut capital spending by 20%.

French energy group Total said the company would seek to reduce total spending by more than $3 billion, including $2.5 billion to come from exploration and production.

Rystad said it still expected major projects, including ExxonMobil’s Greater Liza development off Guyana, to be sanctioned this year.

The majority of the producing North Sea oil and gas fields could make money at $30 a barrel of oil thanks to improvements made since the last market downturn in 2014-16, but most yet to be approved projects were at risk.

“Most FIDs (final investment decisions) for 2020 are off the table. At current prices, nearly two-thirds of development spend could be wiped from our forecast over the next five years,” Neivan Boroujerdi at the consultancy added.