據彭博社3月31日報道，IHS Markit預計，第二季度，全球石油日產量將減少或停產至多1000萬桶，而市場需求將出現缺口，石油庫存將不斷填充。

該公司在一份報告中表示，預計世界各地的產量都將下降，其中歐佩克成員國、俄羅斯和美國受到的沖擊最大。與去年同期相比，第二季度的石油需求預計將減少1640萬桶/天。

需求銳減導致從南非到加拿大的煉油廠關閉，市場上原油過剩。與此同時，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯也提高了產量，以增加市場份額，這些都增加了石油盈余。

IHS Markit預計，停產產量將在年中左右下降，布倫特原油期貨價格將在4月份跌至10美元/桶左右，一些生產商將遭遇負價格，即出售價格低于成本價。

假設2021年全球需求回暖, 到2021年第四季度，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯將比美國更有能力保持甚至增加產量，美國的日產量將降至880萬桶，約為今年第一季度的三分之二。同時，IHS預計沙特阿拉伯的產量會更高。

洪偉立 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

World Oil Output May Fall By 10 Million Barrels a Day, IHS Says

IHS Markit expects as much as 10 million barrels a day of world oil production to be cut or shut-in from April through June as storage fills up and demand craters due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Output is projected to fall in every region of the world, with OPEC members, Russia, and the U.S. among the hardest hit, the consultancy said in a note. Oil demand in the second quarter is expected to decline by 16.4 million barrels a day compared with the same period last year.

The collapse in demand has shut refineries from South Africa to Canada, leading to excess barrels in the market. It also comes as Saudi Arabia and Russia have boosted production in a bid to gain market share, adding to the surplus.

IHS Markit sees the volume of shut-in production easing around mid-year. The consultancy still expects that the price of Brent futures will fall to around $10 a barrel in April and some producers will experience negative prices, where they pay the buyer to take the crude.

Assuming global demand returns next year, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be better positioned to maintain or even increase production compared to the U.S. By the fourth quarter of 2021, U.S. production will have fallen to 8.8 million barrels a day, about two thirds of what it was in the first quarter of this year. At the same time, IHS expects Saudi Arabia’s output to be higher.