據路透社4月7日報道，當前形勢可能改變各類能源的市場動態，將有利于風能、太陽能和水電等可再生能源發展。

以石油和天然氣行業為例。盡管媒體和分析師傾向于關注當前的嚴重的供應過剩問題，但在全球經濟大部分進入某種形式的“冬眠”所帶來的需求沖擊下，長期經濟形勢也發生了變化。

布倫特原油期貨價格自1月份高點以來暴跌53%，周二至每桶34美元左右，亞洲液化天然氣（LNG）現貨價格從去年10月的冬季前峰值暴跌66%，至上周創紀錄的每百萬英國熱2.8美元，令油氣行業陷入困境。

雖然隨著需求恢復增長，原油和液化天然氣價格可能會在未來數月乃至數年內回升，但也有可能繼續下降。以往價格暴跌的經驗表明，要實現全面復蘇需要幾年時間，主要原因是需求必須復蘇，或供應必須下調，以實現市場平衡。

原油和液化天然氣相關的此前在計劃中的投資，大部分將被推遲甚至取消。咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲在4月2日的一份研究報告中表示，高達2100億美元的石油和天然氣投資計劃現在面臨著風險。該公司上游研究團隊的羅布?莫里斯(Rob Morris)表示:“幾乎可以肯定的是，1100億美元的投資將被推遲，另外1000億美元將面臨推遲或取消的風險。如果條件有利的項目取得進展，新的投資可能低至220億美元。”

隨著長期供應趨緊，石油和天然氣支出的大幅縮減最終將有助于推動原油和液化天然氣價格的復蘇，但這也為可再生能源贏得更多市場份額提供了一個難得的機會。

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Renewable energy wins over oil and gas in post-coronavirus world: Russell

The coronavirus is also likely to change the market dynamics of the various types of energy, and mostly in favour of renewables such as wind, solar and hydropower.

Take the oil and gas industry. While the media and analysts tend to focus on the immediate issue of massive oversupply amid a demand shock from much of the world’s economy going into some form of hibernation, the longer-term picture has also shifted.

The oil and gas industry has been crippled by the 53% slump in Brent crude futures since the high in January to around $34 a barrel on Tuesday, and the 66% plunge in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia from its pre-winter peak in October last year to last week’s record-low $2.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

While it’s likely that both crude and LNG prices will recover in the coming months and years as demand growth resumes, it’s also likely that the trajectory will be lower.

Previous experience of price collapses shows it takes several years for a full recovery to eventuate, mainly as demand has to recover, or supply has to adjust lower in order to achieve a balanced market.

For crude and LNG what this means is that much of the investment that had been planned before the coronavirus struck will be delayed or even scrapped.

Up to $210 billion of planned oil and gas investments are now at risk from the coronavirus, consultants Wood Mackenzie said in an April 2 research note.

“$110 billion of investment will almost certainly be deferred, with another $100 billion at risk,” said Rob Morris, from Wood Mackenzie’s upstream research team. “New committed investment could be as low as $22 billion if only the most advantaged projects progress.”

This massive pullback in oil and gas spending will ultimately help drive a recovery in crude and LNG prices as supply tightens over the longer term, but it also opens up a rare opportunity for renewables to grab more market share.