據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于疫情和持續(xù)油價(jià)戰(zhàn)的綜合影響，美國油氣產(chǎn)業(yè)正在大力踩剎車，并以創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的速度減少鉆探活動(dòng)，根據(jù)Rystad能源研究顯示，水平石油鉆機(jī)的數(shù)量較3月中旬的水平下降約65%。

鉆機(jī)數(shù)量被普遍認(rèn)為是勘探與生產(chǎn)企業(yè)投資意愿的最重要指標(biāo)之一。 它不僅代表了市場(chǎng)上的實(shí)際鉆探活動(dòng)，而且也是衡量消費(fèi)者信心的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)，與價(jià)格發(fā)展密切相關(guān)。

據(jù)Rystad能源估計(jì)，從今年3月中旬的約620臺(tái)鉆機(jī)的峰值開始，該石油鉆機(jī)的數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將驟降至200臺(tái)左右，詮釋了勘探與生產(chǎn)（E＆P）公司的最新指導(dǎo)。預(yù)期下降的大部分?jǐn)?shù)量將在四月底達(dá)到。 到目前為止，水平鉆機(jī)數(shù)量已降至約500臺(tái)，較三周前的最高點(diǎn)下降了19％。

Rystad能源頁巖研究負(fù)責(zé)人Artem Abramov表示，該下降速度超過了最初的油價(jià)暴跌后預(yù)期的。 可以肯定的是，與以前的美國陸上鉆機(jī)下降周期相比，該行業(yè)反應(yīng)更快，而且在接下來的幾個(gè)月中，我們很可能會(huì)看到類似幅度的持續(xù)向下調(diào)整。

水平石油鉆機(jī)的數(shù)量在過去兩周內(nèi)下降了近15%。 在2015年初和2016年初的前幾個(gè)下跌周期中，兩周的跌幅分別達(dá)到了11%和9%的峰值。自活動(dòng)高峰以來的三周內(nèi)，水平石油鉆井下降了19%。 在2015年和2016年的下降周期中，峰值后10至16周才看到相同幅度的下降。

整個(gè)2019年鉆機(jī)數(shù)量也有所下降，盡管這應(yīng)歸因于行業(yè)商業(yè)模式的變化而不是真正的下降周期。 當(dāng)時(shí)，大約用了9個(gè)月的時(shí)間才下降到20％。

郝芬 譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

U.S. Rig Count Could Collapse By 65%

Due to the combined global effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, the American oil and gas industry is stepping heavily on the brake pedal and is reducing drilling at record speed, Rystad Energy research shows, putting the horizontal oil rig count on track to fall by about 65% from mid-March levels.

The rig count is widely considered to be one of the most important indicators of investment appetite by E&Ps. It not only represents the actual drilling activity in the market but is also a key metric of consumer confidence, closely related to price developments.

From a peak of about 620 rigs in mid-March 2020, the oil rig count is forecast to free-fall to a potential bottom of around 200, Rystad Energy estimates, interpreting updated guidance from exploration and production (E&P) companies. Most of the anticipated decline will come already by the end of April. The horizontal rig count has so far dropped to roughly 500, falling by 19% from the recent apogee just three weeks ago.

“The speed of this decline exceeds the initial post-oil-price-crash expectations. This is for sure a much faster industry reaction than during the previous US land rig down cycles, and we will likely see continuous downward adjustments of similar magnitude throughout the next couple of months,” says Rystad Energy’s Head of Shale Research Artem Abramov.

The horizontal oil rig count declined by almost 15% over the past two weeks. In the previous down cycles of early 2015 and early 2016, two-week declines peaked at 11% and 9%, respectively. Over a three-week period since peak activity level, horizontal oil drilling is down by 19%. In the down cycles of 2015 and 2016, it took 10 to 16 weeks after the peak to see the same magnitude of decline.

Rig counts also fell throughout all of 2019, though this should be attributed to a change in the industry business model rather than a real down cycle. That time, it took around nine months for the decline to reach 20% magnitude.