據4月7日OGJ報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)在其最新一期《短期能源展望》中表示，美國將在2020年第三季度恢復其原油和石油產品凈進口國的地位，并在預測期結束前的大多數時間里繼續保持凈進口國的地位。

這一預測依據的是原油凈進口的增加和石油產品凈出口的減少。隨著美國原油產量下滑，可供出口的桶數將減少，預計原油凈進口將增加。在石油產品方面，凈出口將在2020年第三季度降至最低水平，屆時美國煉油廠的開工量預計將大幅下降。

值得注意的是，EIA在展望中所預測的結果是在預測期間歐佩克+不重新執行減產協議的情況下做出的。由于全球需求在不斷變化中，因此4月的《展望》將面臨更大的不確定性。

3月份，布倫特原油均價為32美元/桶，較2月份的均價下跌24美元/桶，為2016年1月以來的最低月度均價。EIA預測，2020年布倫特原油均價將為33美元/桶，比上月的水平低10美元/桶，低于2019年的64美元/桶。由于全球石油庫存再度下降，給油價帶來上行壓力，布倫特原油均價將在2021年升至46美元/桶，比上月的預測低10美元/桶。

王佳晶 摘譯自 OGJ

原文如下：

EIA: US to regain status as net oil importer in third quarter

The US will regain its status as a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer in most months through the end of the forecast period, the US Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The forecast is a result of higher net imports of crude oil and lower net exports of petroleum products. Net crude oil imports are expected to increase because as US crude oil production declines, there will be fewer bbl available for export. On the petroleum product side, net exports will be lowest in the third quarter of 2020, when US refinery runs are expected to decline significantly.

It is noteworthy that EIA’s forecasts in the outlook were made assuming no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement during the forecast period.

EIA said the April edition of the outlook is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving.

Brent crude oil prices averaged $32/bbl in March, a decrease of $24/bbl from the average in February and the lowest monthly average since January 2016. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $33/bbl in 2020, $10/bbl lower than in last month’s STEO and down from an average of $64/bbl in 2019. Average Brent prices will rise to an average of $46/bbl in 2021, $10/bbl lower than forecast last month, as a return to declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.