據4月9日Rigzone報道，由于全球需求不斷減少，全球主要產油國似乎將達成減產協議，油價延續了此前的漲勢。

紐約原油期貨價格周三上漲約4%，超過26美元/桶，此前俄羅斯表示準備減產160萬桶/天，約占其總產量的15%。歐佩克輪值主席國阿爾及利亞的能源部長對該國國家通訊社表示，將于周四晚些時候舉行的歐佩克+會議將討論大規模的減產，或將達到1000萬桶/天。

20國集團的能源部長們將在周五討論如何為達成協議而做出更廣泛的貢獻，美國的合作可能是啟動歐佩克+供應限制的關鍵。美國要求俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯減少石油產量，并表示，由于油價暴跌導致美國石油產量下降，該國已“自動”減產。

不過，莫斯科對美國的承諾仍持懷疑態度，這表明談判仍有破裂的可能。克里姆林宮發言人佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)表示，俄羅斯不認為需求下降或價格下降導致的供應減少是真正意義上的減產。

隨著全球能源消耗的下降速度超出許多人的預期，低油價和高供給的情況或將結束。全球第三大石油消費國印度的石油需求暴跌了70%之多，隨著美國石油消費量降至至少30年來的最低水平，美國一些大型煉油廠也面臨關閉危機。

截至倫敦時間上午7點30分，紐約商品交易所 5月份交割的西德克薩斯中質原油價格上漲4.2%，至每桶26.14美元，此前一個交易日的漲幅為6.2%。歐洲洲際交易所7月份交割的布倫特原油價格上漲1.9%，至每桶33.45美元，而周三收盤時上漲了3%。

盡管期貨市場有所上漲，但由于煉油廠削減加工率和購買量，現貨價格仍在下跌。北美內陸地區的原油價格正不斷走低，巴肯(Bakken)地區的原油價格已跌至10美元以下，加拿大的石油價格也創下歷史新低。艾伯塔省省長肯尼(Jason Kenney)周二警告稱，油價出現負增長的可能性非常大。

接受彭博社訪問的26名分析師、交易員和煉油商中，25名都預測歐佩克和其他產油國將同意減產，平均來看，將減產850萬桶/天。雖然這是一個巨大的降幅，但與一些交易員估計的每天高達3500萬桶的需求損失相比，這個降幅仍然相形見絀。

高盛集團的分析師達米恩?庫瓦林（Damien Courvalin）在4月8日的一份報告中表示，現在協調減產的可能性很大。不過，每天減少1000萬桶或許還不夠，因低油價還將增加400萬桶/天的減產量。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Up With Producers Edging Toward Deal

Oil extended gains as the world’s top oil producers appeared to be moving closer to a deal to curb output in the face of deepening demand destruction being wrought by the coronavirus.

Futures in New York rose around 4% to above $26 a barrel after rallying Wednesday as Russia said it’s ready to cut by 1.6 million barrels a day, or about 15% of its total output. The OPEC+ meeting to be held later on Thursday will discuss a “massive output reduction, which may reach 10 million barrels a day,” the energy minister of Algeria, which holds OPEC’s rotating presidency, told his country’s state news agency.

G-20 energy ministers will then discuss broader contributions to any agreement on Friday, with U.S. cooperation likely key to unlocking the OPEC+ supply curbs. President Donald Trump has put huge diplomatic pressure on Russia and Saudi Arabia to reduce production, while saying America’s cut will happen “automatically” as plunging prices cause a pullback in output.

Moscow remains skeptical about the U.S. commitment, however, signaling that there’s still a chance negotiations will break down. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia doesn’t consider a supply reduction driven by falling demand or lower prices to be a real output cut.

The possible end of the Saudi-Russian price war just over a month after it started is happening as global energy consumption plummeted faster than many anticipated. Oil demand in India, the world’s third-biggest consumer, has collapsed by as much as 70% amid the world’s largest national lockdown, while some of America’s biggest refineries are facing closure after U.S. oil consumption fell to the lowest in at least three decades.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 4.2% to $26.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:30 a.m. in London after climbing 6.2% in the previous session. Brent for July delivery added 1.9% to $33.45 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after closing up 3% on Wednesday.

Despite gains in the futures market, physical prices are still dropping as refineries cut processing rates and purchases. North American landlocked crudes are fetching ever lower prices, with grades in the Bakken region back beneath $10 and oil in Canada at a record low. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney warned on Tuesday that there’s a “very real possibility” of negative prices.

All but one of 26 analysts, traders and refiners surveyed by Bloomberg forecast that OPEC and other producers will agree to reduce output, with the average of their estimates at 8.5 million barrels a day. While that’s a vast decrease, it would still pale in comparison to the demand loss that some traders gauge is as much as 35 million barrels a day.

A coordinated output cut is now more likely than not, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Damien Courvalin said in a note dated April 8. However, a 10 million barrel a day reduction wouldn’t be sufficient and would still require an additional 4 million barrels a day of price-induced shut-ins, they said.