據今日石油2020年4月8日奧斯陸報道，雷斯塔能源公司日前發表的一份影響分析報告顯示，由于疫情影響和沙特與俄羅斯的油價戰對油氣活動的共同影響，今年全球至少有9口已計劃的最重要勘探井面臨延遲開鉆的風險。

這些已計劃的最重要勘探井位于挪威、巴西、巴哈馬、圭亞那、美國、岡比亞和納米比亞，目標總儲量將在70億桶油當量。

由于在目前的價格水平下，這些頂級探井的商業可行性、影響設備部件供應的關閉、運營商優先考慮其他目標以及作業人員行動受限制等原因，雷斯塔能源公司已確定暫停開鉆的頂級探井目前處于危險之中。

雷斯塔能源公司國際上游分析師Palzor Shenga說：“考慮到當前的全球形勢，我們現在預計，全球今年年底前累計發現量可能甚至會低于2016年的89億桶油當量，這是十年來的最低水平。這將完全取決于未來幾個月將有多少口關鍵初探井能夠開鉆。”

由于勘探商只發現了大約25億桶油當的新儲量，今年第一季度的開局就不太理想。這22個發現平均分布在陸上和海上區域，其中天然氣發現數占了一半多一點。與去年同期相比，新發現儲量下降了大約40%，發現數幾乎減少了一半。

這家總部位于奧斯陸的能源研究公司表示：“當我們進入2020年的時候，雷斯塔能源公司相信全球發現的趨勢將會繼續上升，新發現儲量預計將會增加。然而，目前的全球市場形勢將給勘探作業帶來許多挑戰。”

雷斯塔能源公司表示，對地質環境和地下復雜性的理解仍然沒有改變——在未來幾個月里，地面以上出乎意料的市場動蕩將發揮關鍵作用。

美國石油巨頭埃克森美孚公司7日宣布將資本支出削減30%，營運支出削減15%。埃克森美孚公司表示，雖然圭亞那目前的海上生產業務仍未受到疫情和油價下跌的影響，但未來的活動可能會推遲。

李峻 編譯自 今日石油

原文如下：

Multi-billion-barrel wells facing delays in Guyana, US and elsewhere – Rystad Energy

At least nine of the world’s top planned exploration wells for 2020 are at risk of being suspended as a result of the combined effect on oil and gas activities of the COVID-19 virus and the oil price war, a Rystad Energy impact analysis shows.

These wells, located in Norway, Brazil, the Bahamas, Guyana, the US, Gambia and Namibia would target a combined 7 billion barrels of oil equivalents (boe).

The wells that Rystad Energy has identified as candidates for suspension are at risk because of their commercial viability under the current price levels, shutdowns that affect the supplies of equipment components, operators’ prioritization among other targets and limitations in crew movements, among other reasons.

“Given the prevailing global situation we now foresee that the cumulative discovered volumes by the end of the year could go even below the 2016 level of 8.9 billion boe, which was the decade’s lowest. This will solely depend upon how many key wildcat wells will still see a spinning drillbit in the coming months,” says Rystad Energy senior upstream analyst Palzor Shenga.

The first quarter of 2020 already started on a low note, as explorers have only uncovered new volumes of around 2.5 billion boe. The 22 discoveries are evenly split between onshore and offshore regions, with gas representing just over half of the volumes. Volumes are down about 40% from the same period of 2019, and the number of discoveries has almost halved.

“When we entered 2020, Rystad Energy believed that the global discovery trend would continue its upward trajectory with an expected increase in volumes. However, the current global market situation will bring many challenges to exploration,” the Norway-based energy research company said.

The understanding of the geological context and complexities of the subsurface remains unchanged – it is the unexpected market turmoil above the surface that will play the key role in the coming months, Rysatd Energy stated.

In announcing a 30 percent slash in CAPEX and a 15 percent cut in OPEX on Tuesday, US oil major ExxonMobil said while current production operations offshore Guyana remain unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic and fall in oil prices, future activities can be delayed.