據(jù)4月10日OGJ報(bào)道，G20成員國(guó)決定在穩(wěn)定石油市場(chǎng)方面發(fā)揮更積極的作用，但沒有做出具體承諾，也沒有給出一些可能的削減措施。

會(huì)議公報(bào)草案稱，G20成員國(guó)將致力于盡一切努力，無論是單獨(dú)還是集體，以確保能源行業(yè)復(fù)蘇。“我們歡迎產(chǎn)油國(guó)穩(wěn)定能源市場(chǎng)的承諾……我們呼吁其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)和消費(fèi)國(guó)也能為這些努力助力。”

4月9日，歐佩克和俄羅斯達(dá)成協(xié)議，將全球石油日產(chǎn)量削減1000萬桶，這是歷史上最大的減產(chǎn)規(guī)模。

Rystad Energy的石油市場(chǎng)分析師路易絲·迪克森(Louise Dickson)表示:“擬議中的歐佩克+的合作和規(guī)模是前所未有的，所以歐佩克和G20在宣布任何重大措施之前都需要時(shí)間，這是有道理的。但是石油市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)沒有多余的時(shí)間了。一些國(guó)家已經(jīng)表示，它們已承諾關(guān)閉數(shù)百萬桶的石油生產(chǎn)。如果5月份達(dá)成協(xié)議，完全遵守協(xié)議將變得不可行。”

他補(bǔ)充道：“即使在一個(gè)條件成熟的市場(chǎng)里，我們看到歐佩克+完全遵守協(xié)議，每天減產(chǎn)1000萬桶，但在2020年第二季度，仍有令人難以置信的至少1000萬桶/天的供應(yīng)過剩。擬議中的減產(chǎn)措施本身無法有效或持久地扭轉(zhuǎn)布倫特原油價(jià)格的深度順價(jià)曲線，因?yàn)橐霊?yīng)對(duì)目前和未來的供應(yīng)過剩，就必須保持庫存的經(jīng)濟(jì)性。因此，我們并不認(rèn)為當(dāng)前石油市場(chǎng)的樂觀情緒——布倫特原油價(jià)格處于每桶30美元的低位是合理的，我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，我們需要看到一個(gè)更大的期貨溢價(jià)，以支付即將需要的所有庫存。”

他強(qiáng)調(diào)：“另外，也不要對(duì)實(shí)際生產(chǎn)削減規(guī)模那么肯定。我們認(rèn)為不太可能在5月1日實(shí)施每日1000萬桶的全面減產(chǎn)，因?yàn)榫嚯x5月1日只有三周時(shí)間，而實(shí)現(xiàn)如此規(guī)模的減產(chǎn)需要更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。關(guān)閉石油生產(chǎn)設(shè)施不像簡(jiǎn)單地關(guān)掉水龍頭或按下按鈕那么靈活簡(jiǎn)單。”

Rystad Energy分析主管佩爾·馬格納斯·尼斯維恩(Per Magnus Nysveen)表示:“我們與歐佩克達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)協(xié)議，然而，由于包括美國(guó)和加拿大在內(nèi)的其它產(chǎn)油國(guó)的承諾太少，該協(xié)議看上去很脆弱。需求下降的幅度現(xiàn)在高達(dá)2700萬桶/天，所以我們可能在5月初耗盡原油儲(chǔ)備空間，因?yàn)闊捰蛷S現(xiàn)在的放緩速度比生產(chǎn)商快得多。”

鄒勤 摘譯自 OGJ

原文如下：

G20 agrees to stabilize oil market

G20 members decided to take a more active role to stabilize the oil market on Apr. 10, but did not make specific commitments or give a number of potential cuts.

A draft communique from the meeting said the G20 members would “commit to doing whatever it takes, both individually and collectively” to ensure the energy sector makes a recovery. “We welcome the commitment of producers to stabilize energy markets…We call on other producing and consuming countries to complement these efforts.”

On Apr. 9, OPEC and Russia agreed a deal to cut 10 million b/d from global supply, the biggest supply reduction in history.

“The collaboration and size of the proposed OPEC++ unprecedented, so it makes sense both OPEC and G20 are taking their time before any dam-busting announcement. But the oil market does not have time to spare. Some countries have communicated they have pledged shut-ins of millions of bbl of oil, which, if the deal is implemented in May, makes full compliance not feasible,” said Louise Dickson, an oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

“Even if in some perfect world we see full OPEC++ compliance and 10 million b/d in cuts, this still leaves an incredible minimum 10 million b/d supply overhang for 2020 second quarter.”

“The proposed OPEC+ cuts alone cannot reverse the deep contango curve of Brent prices in a meaningful or lasting way as storage is needed to remain economical to handle the current and still coming oversupply. So, we aren’t sold that the current oil market optimism - with Brent in the low $30s - is warranted, and still believe that we need to see a bigger contango to pay for all the storage that will soon be needed.”

“Also, and do not be so sure about the actual production cut size. We find it very unlikely that the full 10 million b/d cut will be implemented as May 1 is just three weeks away and cuts of that size take time to realize. The oil machine is not as flexible as just simply turning off the tap or pressing a button.”

Per Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis at Rystad Energy, said: “We have a deal by OPEC+ that was secured today by US saving Mexico's face. However, the deal looks fragile as there is yet too small commitment from other oil producers including US and Canada. The demand destruction is now as deep as 27 million b/d, so we risk running out of crude storage early May as refineries are now slowing down much faster than producers.”