據油氣新聞網站4月12日消息 ICIS最新分析顯示，歐洲至少有660萬噸/年的乙烯產能受到煉油廠減產或停產的影響，占歐洲乙烯產能的26%。

乙烯由煉油廠裂解裝置生產，由于與疫情有關的限制措施切斷了公路和航空運輸，對包括航空燃料在內的石油產品的需求驟減，煉油廠受到沖擊，整個地區(qū)的航空業(yè)已經停滯不前。

這些乙烯裂解裝置可能會被迫降低開工率或關閉，因為這些裝置依賴其連接的煉油廠獲得的石腦油或液化石油氣（LPG）原料。

ICIS分析表明，660萬噸/年的產量約占歐洲煉油廠相關蒸汽裂解能力的50%，占該地區(qū)蒸汽裂解能力的26%。

丙烯的產能為590萬噸/年，苯的產能為400萬噸/年。

分析師們了解到，目前約有650萬桶/日的煉油產能尚未達到額定產能。

有一些計劃中的停工，但大多數是由于疫情和相關的封鎖減少燃料需求。專家們認為，至少有220萬桶/日的減產，而歐洲的預期吞吐量為1220萬桶/日。

ICIS全球精煉團隊的高級顧問邁克爾·康諾利表示：“事實上，這一降幅幾乎可以肯定會更高，考慮到那些不共享此類信息的網站，降幅可能高達500萬桶/日。”

煉油廠的利用率在50%-60%之間，這反映了大多數蒸餾裝置的典型最低負荷。

然而，與之直接相關的裂解裝置可能能夠以比這更高的利用率運行。

王磊 摘譯自 油氣新聞

原文如下：

European ethylene capacity hit by refinery cuts

At least 6.6 million tonnes per year (mtpy), or 26 per cent, of Europe’s ethylene production capacity is threatened by oil refineries running at reduced rates or ceasing production, according to new analysis by ICIS.

The ethylene is produced by crackers attached to refineries hit by collapsing demand for petroleum products including jet fuel as coronavirus-linked restrictions cut road and air transport; aviation has come to a standstill across the region.

These ethylene crackers may be forced to reduce operating rates or close because they rely mainly on naphtha or liquified petroleum gas (LPG) feedstocks sourced from the refineries to which they are linked.

ICIS analysis suggests the 6.6 mtpy represent about 50 per cent the refinery-linked steam cracking capacity in Europe, and 26 per cent of the region's steam cracking capacity.

For propylene, 5.9 mtpy of capacity is linked, while for benzene the figure is 4.0 mtpy.

The analysts are aware of around 6.5 mbpd of oil refining capacity that is not operating at typical capacity.

There are some planned stoppages, but most are due to reduced fuels demand from coronavirus and associated lockdowns. The experts believe that at least 2.2 mbpd of reductions are in place, versus the expected forecast throughput of 12.2 mbpd for Europe.

“The reduction is almost certainly even higher in reality and could be as high as 5 mbpd when considering those sites which do not share such information,” according to Michael Connolly, Senior Consultant at ICIS global refining team.

The refineries are operating in the range of 50-60 per cent utilisation, which reflects the typical minimum turndown for most distillation units.

However, the crackers that are directly linked are probably able to run at higher utilisation rates than this.