據(jù)原油新聞2020年4月14日迪拜報(bào)道，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)14日在其最新一期《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》報(bào)告中表示，由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將出現(xiàn)自大蕭條以來最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)惡化，今年油價(jià)在最樂觀的情況下將平均每桶35美元，油價(jià)在2021年將維持在這一水平上。

在其1月份的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》報(bào)告中，IMF預(yù)測(cè)今年油價(jià)為每桶58.03美元，2021年為每桶55.31美元。

盡管歐佩克+集團(tuán)12日達(dá)成協(xié)議，在今年5月和6月將每天減產(chǎn)970萬桶，并在2022年4月協(xié)議期滿之前逐步減少減產(chǎn)，但目前的油價(jià)仍低于IMF的預(yù)測(cè)。

IMF研究部門副主管Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti在報(bào)告發(fā)布會(huì)上表示：“歐佩克+減產(chǎn)承諾將有助于穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)。然而，未來的油價(jià)不太可能回到疫情出現(xiàn)前的水平。”

李峻 編譯自 原油新聞

原文如下：

IMF slashes 2020 oil price forecast to $35/b as global economy set to contract 3%

Oil prices will average $35/b in 2020 as the global economy contracts 3% in the worst deterioration in economic conditions since the Great Depression in a best-case scenario and stay around that level for 2021, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday in its World Economic Outlook.

In its January report, the fund assumed an oil price of $58.03/b in 2020, and $55.31/b in 2021.

Oil prices are currently trading below the fund's forecast despite the OPEC+ group agreement on Sunday to cut a record 9.7 million b/d in May and June this year and gradually decrease cuts through April 2022.

"The promised reduction in supply will help stabilize the market," deputy director of the fund's research department Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti told a press conference on the report.

However future prices are unlikely to return to pre-coronavirus levels, the report said.