據(jù)油氣新聞網(wǎng)站4月16日消息 國際能源署（IEA）表示，預(yù)計(jì)到2020年，全球石油需求將同比下降930萬桶/日，創(chuàng)下歷史新低。預(yù)計(jì)4月份的需求將比去年同期減少2900萬桶/日，降至1995年的水平。

在187個(gè)國家和地區(qū)，疫情控制措施的影響已使流動(dòng)性幾乎停止。預(yù)計(jì)2020年第二季度的需求將比上年同期水平低2310萬桶/日。IEA在其最新的石油市場報(bào)告（OMR）中稱，2020年的復(fù)蘇將是漸進(jìn)的，12月份的需求仍將同比下降270萬桶/日。

今年5月，歐佩克達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)歷史性的減產(chǎn)協(xié)議，將在商定的基準(zhǔn)水平上減產(chǎn)970萬桶/日，全球石油供應(yīng)將創(chuàng)下1200萬桶/日的紀(jì)錄。由于4月份產(chǎn)量較高，有效減產(chǎn)量為1070萬桶/日。

美國和加拿大的降幅將最大，其他國家也將進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)。2020年第四季度，非歐佩克國家的總產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)下降至520萬桶/日，今年全年的總產(chǎn)量可能比去年減少230萬桶/日。

預(yù)計(jì)2020年煉油產(chǎn)量將下降760萬桶/日，至7430萬桶/日，原因是燃料需求急劇下降。預(yù)計(jì)2020年第二季度，全球煉油廠的年產(chǎn)量將下降1600萬桶/日，所有地區(qū)都將普遍停產(chǎn)。盡管煉油廠開工率在下降，但預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)品庫存仍將增加600萬桶/日。2020年下半年隨著全球市場陷入赤字，煉油活動(dòng)將緩慢恢復(fù)。

早期數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國庫存增加50萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2月份工業(yè)庫存下降3540萬桶，至2878萬桶，這是對產(chǎn)品的吸引力超過了原油的增長。經(jīng)合組織石油庫存總量比五年平均水平低4240萬桶，由于前景疲弱，目前庫存量可覆蓋79.2天的遠(yuǎn)期需求。3月份，原油浮式儲油量增加2290萬桶（70萬桶/日），至10310萬桶。

需求和供應(yīng)的雙重沖擊導(dǎo)致3月份石油期貨價(jià)格下跌40%。布倫特原油價(jià)格已從18年低點(diǎn)小幅回升，因生產(chǎn)商達(dá)成了減產(chǎn)協(xié)議，目前交易價(jià)為31美元/桶。需求疲弱推高WTI Midland和West Canadian Select等原油價(jià)格跌破10美元/桶。由于采取了遏制措施，汽油和噴氣燃料的需求繼續(xù)受到影響。

低價(jià)格威脅著一個(gè)仍將是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行核心的行業(yè)的穩(wěn)定。報(bào)告稱，盡管今年需求下降創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄，但石油公司仍面臨投資以抵消自然產(chǎn)量下降和滿足未來增長的挑戰(zhàn)。

預(yù)計(jì)到2020年，全球勘探和生產(chǎn)公司的資本支出將比2019年下降約32%，至3350億美元，為13年來的最低水平。財(cái)政資源的減少也削弱了石油工業(yè)開發(fā)全世界清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型所需的一些技術(shù)的能力。

王磊 摘譯自 油氣新聞

原文如下：

Global oil demand set to hit 25-year low in April: IEA

Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in 2020, said the International Energy Agency (IEA), adding that demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, down to a level last seen in 1995.

The impact of coronavirus containment measures in 187 countries and territories has been to bring mobility almost to a halt. For the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20), demand is expected to be 23.1 mb/d below year-ago levels. The recovery in 2H20 will be gradual; in December demand will still be down 2.7 mb/d y-o-y, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR).

Global oil supply is set to plunge by a record 12 mb/d in May, after OPEC+ forged a historic output deal to cut production by 9.7 mb/d from an agreed baseline level. As April production was high, the effective cut is 10.7 mb/d.

Additional reductions are set to come from other countries with the US and Canada seeing the largest declines. Total non-OPEC output falls could reach 5.2 mb/d in 4Q20, and for the year as a whole output may be 2.3 mb/d lower than last year.

Refining throughput in 2020 is forecast to fall 7.6 mb/d y-o-y to 74.3 mb/d on sharply reduced demand for fuels. Global refinery intake is expected to plummet by 16 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20, with widespread run cuts and shutdowns in all regions. Although refinery runs are falling, product stocks are still expected to build by 6 mb/d. In 2H20, refining activity will slowly recover as the global market moves into deficit.

Early data show US stocks increased by 0.5 mb/d. OECD data show that industry stocks in February fell by 35.4 mb to 2 878 mb as a draw for products more than offset a build in crude. Total OECD oil stocks stood 42.4 mb below the five-year average and, due to the weak outlook, now provide 79.2 days of forward demand coverage. In March, floating storage of crude oil increased by 22.9 mb (0.7 mb/d) to 103.1 mb.

Twin demand and supply shocks caused oil futures prices to fall by 40 per cent in March. Brent has recovered modestly from an 18-year low as producers reached agreement to curtail output and is trading at $31/bbl. Weak demand pushed prices for crude grades such as WTI Midland and West Canadian Select below $10/bbl. Cracks for gasoline and jet fuel continued to suffer as containment measures were introduced.

Low prices threaten the stability of an industry that will remain central to the functioning of the global economy. Even with demand falling by a record amount this year, oil companies still face the challenges of investing to offset natural production declines and to meet future growth, the report said.

Global capital expenditure by exploration and production companies in 2020 is forecast to drop by about 32 per cent versus 2019 to $335 billion, the lowest level for 13 years. This reduction of financial resources also undermines the ability of the oil industry to develop some of the technologies needed for clean energy transitions around the world.