據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯能源部長(zhǎng)在一份聯(lián)合聲明中表示，該兩國(guó)可能準(zhǔn)備實(shí)施進(jìn)一步的減產(chǎn)以穩(wěn)定價(jià)格。

彭博社援引該聲明的話(huà)稱(chēng)，兩國(guó)將“繼續(xù)密切監(jiān)視石油市場(chǎng)，并準(zhǔn)備在必要時(shí)與歐佩克+組織和其他生產(chǎn)國(guó)聯(lián)合采取進(jìn)一步措施。”

上周，歐佩克同意從下個(gè)月開(kāi)始減產(chǎn)970萬(wàn)桶/天，并一直持續(xù)到6月底，此后，歐佩克將開(kāi)始逐步提高產(chǎn)量。

5—6月的每日減產(chǎn)970萬(wàn)桶，7—12月，削減將降至每日770萬(wàn)桶，到2022年4月底，再進(jìn)一步降至每日580萬(wàn)桶。

然而，由于疫情影響需求繼續(xù)急劇下降。路透社約翰·肯普(JohnKemp)在他的每周專(zhuān)欄中寫(xiě)道，僅美國(guó)（世界上最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)）的石油消費(fèi)就已經(jīng)下降了三分之一。即使有人談?wù)撝匦麻_(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)，但這很可能會(huì)像歐洲一樣逐漸發(fā)生，而且至少要等幾個(gè)月后，需求才能以任何有意義的方式開(kāi)始恢復(fù)。

同時(shí)，石油庫(kù)存正在上升。據(jù)報(bào)道，本周政府正在就9家石油公司戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備的租賃空間進(jìn)行談判，這些石油公司無(wú)處存放其未售出和暫時(shí)無(wú)法出售的原油。

在這種情況下，歐佩克+減產(chǎn)聲明對(duì)價(jià)格的影響減弱了也就不足為奇了，大多數(shù)貿(mào)易商似乎認(rèn)為這還不夠，即使非歐佩克+生產(chǎn)國(guó)實(shí)施了額外的減產(chǎn)。 2000萬(wàn)桶/日的數(shù)據(jù)是總減產(chǎn)量的數(shù)字，但本季度需求下降約為3000萬(wàn)桶/日。

郝芬 譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Russia And Saudi Arabia Consider Even Deeper Oil Output Cuts

Russia and Saudi Arabia may be ready to enact deeper oil production cuts to stabilize prices, the energy ministers of the two countries said in a joint statement.

The two will “continue to closely monitor the oil market and are prepared to take further measures jointly with OPEC+ and other producers if these are deemed necessary,” the statement said as quoted by Bloomberg.

Last week, OPEC+ agreed to remove 9.7 million bpd of oil from the market, with the cuts beginning next month and remaining in effect until the end of June, after which the group will start to ramp up production gradually.

From 9.7 million bpd in May to June, the cuts will decline to 7.7 million bpd for the period July to December 2020, and then further to 5.8 million bpd until the end of April 2022.

However, demand has continued to fall sharply because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Oil consumption in the United States alone—the world’s largest consumer of oil—has dived by a third, Reuters’ John Kemp wrote in his weekly column. Even though there is talk about reopening the economy, this will most likely happen gradually, as in Europe, and it will be at least a few months until demand begins to recover in any meaningful way.

Meanwhile, oil inventories are on the rise. The federal U.S. government was this week reported to be negotiating leasing space in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies that have nowhere else to store their unsold and temporarily unsellable crude.

In this context, it is hardly a surprise that the effect the OPEC+ production cut announcement had on prices was muted, with most traders appearing to believe it was not deep enough, even with the additional cuts to be implemented by non-OPEC+ producers. The 20 million bpd figure is the one being thrown around as the size of the total reductions, and yet demand decline this quarter is seen at some 30 million bpd.