據原油新聞2020年4月20日新德里報道，目前原油儲存是原油市場需求的唯一事情。疫情影響已使原油消費消失，這迫使原油生產商和貿易商將更多的原油儲存在油輪上。雖然印度將用原油填滿其儲油庫，但儲油空間的缺乏意味著印度也失去了一個機會。

世界第三大原油進口國印度正計劃在未來幾個月里充實其戰略石油儲備（SPR）。位于印度南部的3個具有儲存533萬噸原油能力的基地——維沙卡帕特南、芒格洛爾和帕都爾——如今可以儲存原油的空間已不到一半。

時機近乎完美。分析師們一致認為，油價將繼續承壓。能源資訊分析公司預計，布倫特原油未來幾個月的交易價格將低于每桶20美元，年底前將反彈至每桶40美元。即使按照最近的標準來衡量，恢復的原油價格也會很低，這取決于人們從疫情中恢復規模和時間。

但就戰略儲備而言，印度落后于主要消費國及其亞洲鄰國，如日本和韓國：其中日本為5.28億桶，韓國為2.14億桶。相比之下，印度只有微不足道的3900萬桶。對印度來說，這相當于在發生原油供應中斷時只能提供9天的需求保障，而日本則是198天。

印度之所以不愿進行戰略儲備是因為其所涉成本高昂，不僅要建造儲油罐和必要的基礎設施，還要維持和持有原油。

即便如此，考慮到印度對原油的依賴，印度內閣日前批準了再建650萬噸的第二階段SPR。印度去年原油進口量平均每天大約450萬桶。

歐佩克+減產vs.庫存

全球原油庫存水平一直是原油市場供過于求的晴雨表，這也是為什么盡管歐佩克+達成了減產協議但評論員們仍然看跌的原因。歐佩克+協議要求歐佩克、俄羅斯和其他9個盟國在5月和6月每天削減970萬桶原油產量，把今年下半年的原油日產量削減770萬桶，然后把明年全年的原油日產量削減580萬桶，直到2022年4月。

G20的能源部長們日前也表示支持歐佩克+減產協議。國際能源署4月15日表示，中國、印度、美國和韓國將通過充實戰略石油儲備來支持這些全球行動，從市場每天減少200多萬桶原油，這將為商業原油庫存迅速增加的市場增加一些原油儲存空間。

IEA署長法提赫·比羅爾表示：“這將為未來幾周供應過剩的峰值提供更大原油儲存空間。”比羅爾估計這些努力可能會從市場減少2億桶原油。“假設未來3個月出現這種情況，這可能意味著每天從市場上將撤出多達200萬桶的原油供應?！?/span>

全球原油庫存水平將在5月份爆滿。陸上原油儲存空間正在迅速耗盡，現在參與者已經把目光轉向估計有4億桶的浮式儲存，這將推高船只的運費率。全球迄今已有多達40艘超級油輪和20艘蘇伊士型油輪已簽訂長期租賃合同。一些超大型油輪已被預訂儲存原油的時間超過了3年，這可能是有史以來最長的海上原油儲存時間。

消耗陸上和海上的原油庫存可能需要數年時間，而歐佩克+減產協議可能需要一段時間才能生效，屆時市場很有可能已經收受到了損害。

高盛公司大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie日前告訴記者，隨著庫存耗盡，任何減產的時間生效以及減產數額與需求損失不匹配的事實，都意味著歐佩克+減產協議對石油市場來說可能“規模太小、來得太遲”。

李峻 編譯自 原油新聞

原文如下：

Low oil prices are an opportunity for India to stockpile: Fuel for Thought

Oil storage is about the only thing in demand in the crude market right

now. The coronavirus pandemic has obliterated consumption and forced producers and traders to store more oil on the water as land-based facilities near tank tops. While India will fill its caverns with crude, the lack of space means it’s also an opportunity lost.

The world’s third biggest oil importer is planning to fill up its strategic petroleum reserves in the coming months. India’s combined capacity of 5.33 million mt in three locations in southern Indian – Vishakhapatnam, Mangalore and Padur – is just over half full.

The timing is close to perfect. There is a consensus among analysts that oil prices will remain under pressure. Analytics sees Brent crude trading below $20/b over the next couple of months before rebounding to $40/b by the year-end. Even the recovery price is low by recent standards and depends on the shape and timing of the recovery from coronavirus as people return to their cars.

But as far as SPR is concerned, India is behind major consuming countries and its Asian neighbours such as Japan and South Korea：Japan’s SPR is 528 million barrels and South Korea has 214 million barrels. That compares to a paltry 39 million barrels for India. For India, this equates to just 9 days of cover in the event of a disruption compared with 198 days for Japan at the other end of the spectrum.

India’s reluctance stems from the high costs of involved, not only in building out the tanks and necessary infrastructure, but also in maintaining and holding the oil.

That said, the Indian Cabinet has approved another 6.5 million mt of SPR under the second phase given the country’s reliance on oil. India’s crude imports averaged around 4.5 million b/d in 2019.

OPEC+ cut vs. stocks

It is global storage levels that have been acting as a barometer of the oil market glut, and these are the reason commentators remain bearish despite the orchestrated production cut deal from OPEC+. The deal calls on OPEC, Russia and nine other allies to cut 9.7 million b/d of crude production in May and June, ramping down to 7.7 million b/d for the second half of 2020, and then 5.8 million b/d for all of 2021 through April 2022.

G20 energy ministers have also lent their support to the production cut pact. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that India, US and South Korea would take up to 2 million b/d out of the market by filling up their strategic reserves to support these global efforts, which would add some headroom to a market filling up quickly in commercial stocks.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “This will provide greater headroom for the surplus supply peak in the coming weeks,” estimating these efforts could take out 200 million barrels. “Assuming they happen in the next three months this could represent as much as 2 million b/d of supply withdrawn from the market.”

Analytics sees global storage levels bursting full in May. Space on land is running out fast and now participants have turned to the estimated 400 million barrels of floating storage pushing up freight rates for ships. It estimates up to 40 supertankers and 20 Suezmaxes are already placed on long-term charter. Some supertankers have been booked to store crude for up to three years, potentially the longest ever duration for floating storage.

Draining the stockpiles on land and sea may take years and with any production cut deal likely to take time to take effect, market forces are likely to have done the damage by then.

Goldman Sachs’head of commodities research Jeff Currie told Platts last week that with storage running out, the time it takes for any production cut to take effect and the fact that the reduction won’t match up to the loss in demand, means it could be “too little, too late” for the oil market. It’s a similar view shared by Analytics.

The same could be said for India’s plans to store crude despite its good intentions.