據世界石油4月22日休斯敦報道，原油價格的歷史性大跌正在推動美國頁巖油全面撤退，運營商停止新的鉆探并關閉舊井，此舉可能會使世界最大石油生產國美國的產量減少20%。

對于頁巖油公司而言，西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)的價格在短短幾天內就從“暴跌倒走”模式轉變為危機模式，許多公司現在甚至不確定他們的石油是否還會有市場。IHS Markit的數據顯示，目前每天約有175萬桶原油面臨停產的直接風險，而到今年年底，新投產的油井數量預計將下暴跌90%。

簡而言之，這是頁巖革命的一個迅速而殘酷的終結，就在去年，美國還曾宣稱“美國在能源領域占據主導地位”。

周一，WTI原油價格出現了歷史上的首次負值，這意味著賣方曾一度不得不付錢給買方將其收走。隨后，5月合約的資金緊張蔓延至6月，并波及更廣泛的市場，目前油價在每桶10美元左右，遠低于美國大部分石油行業的日常成本。

IHS Markit駐休斯敦分析師Raoul LeBlanc稱，即便油價維持在15美元，“除了最新，生產效率最高的油井以外，該領域的所有東西都在現金成本基礎上虧損。”

在最近的價格暴跌開始僅僅六周后，運營商正在關閉油井，三分之一的鉆井設備退役，放棄水力壓裂法，解雇5.1萬名工人，大幅減薪，甚至破產。如今，隨著冠狀病毒疫情打擊需求，再過幾周，庫存就會被填滿，這是抑制產量的又一個因素。

上市公司削減了310多億美元的鉆井預算，而美國能源行業的不良債務已經躍升至1,900億美元，在不到一周的時間里增加了110多億美元。截至周二，在10家發行問題債券最多的公司中，石油公司占了5家。

Evercore ISI主辦的一個網絡研討會稱，今年第二和第三季度收入可能為零，這可能意味著美國大型石油勘探企業將消耗掉70億美元的流動資金。Evercore的分析師表示，到最后，多達30%的上市頁巖勘探公司可能會被迫以這樣或那樣的方式退出市場。

裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Oil rout looks to break shale’s global oil dominance

A historic crash in crude prices is driving U.S. shale into full-on retreat with operators halting new drilling and shutting in old wells, moves that could cut output by 20% for the world’s biggest producer of oil.

For shale companies, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude went from hunker-down-and-ride-it-out mode to crisis mode in just a few days, with many now unsure whether there will even be a market for their oil. Some 1.75 million barrels a day is at immediate risk of shutting down while the number of new wells being brought online is forecast to plunge almost 90% by the end of the year, according to IHS Markit Ltd.

In short, it’s a swift and brutal end to the shale revolution, which only last year had President Donald Trump proclaiming “American Energy Dominance.”

West Texas Intermediate crude prices turned negative for the first time in history on Monday, meaning at one point sellers had to pay buyers to take it away. Then, the financial squeeze on the May contract spilled over to June and into the wider market, with prices now trading around $10 a barrel, well below the daily pumping cost in large swaths of America’s oil industry.

Even at $15, “everything back in the field, except the newest and most productive wells, is losing money on a cash-cost basis,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a Houston-based analyst at IHS Markit.

Operators are switching off wells, retiring one in three drill rigs, abandoning fracking, laying off 51,000 workers, slashing salaries and even going bankrupt just six weeks after the latest price plunge began. Now, with the coronavirus pandemic destroying demand, storage is just weeks away from filling up, a further factor choking back output.

Publicly-traded companies have axed more than $31 billion from drilling budgets, while distressed debt in the U.S. energy sector has jumped to $190 billion, up more than $11 billion in less than a week. Oil companies made up five of the top 10 issuers with the most distressed debt as of Tuesday.

The potential for zero revenues in the second and third quarters this year may mean that large U.S. oil explorers burn through $7 billion in liquidity, according to a Webinar hosted by Evercore ISI. By the end of it all, as many as 30% of publicly traded shale explorers could be forced to exit the market one way or another, the Evercore analysts said.