據世界石油5月11日倫敦報道，大型石油公司在第一季度盈利紛紛受到重創，但情況恐怕只會變得更糟。

從挪威到美國的主要石油和天然氣生產商在今年前三個月的利潤大幅下降。埃克森美孚公布了30多年來的首次虧損，而殼牌自二戰以來首次削減了股息。

這僅僅是疫情最初傳播的結果。自從全球疫情爆發導致前所未有的石油市場暴跌以來，情況變得更加糟糕。雖然出現了一些復蘇的跡象，但企業一致警告稱，本季度的形勢將比第一季度更為嚴峻。

一些關鍵要點表明哪些公司可以再忍受三個月的痛苦，而哪些仍將苦苦掙扎:

股息競爭

長期以來，大石油公司慷慨的分紅一直是其吸引投資者的主要因素。但由于殼牌首席執行官本·范伯登決定將公司的股息削減三分之二，股息已經失去了吸引力。

埃克森美孚和雪佛龍表示，他們對股息的承諾不會動搖。BP公司首席執行官伯納德?魯尼的說法更為模棱兩可，他表示董事會將按季度審核股息。

產量下降

幾位首席執行長說，無論是歐佩克的命令，還是低油價的推動，停產已經在發生。這意味著大多數大公司將在第二季度減少石油和天然氣的產量。

美國的產出已經大幅下降，埃克森美孚、雪佛龍公司和康菲石油公司計劃在6月底前將產量削減至多66萬桶。殼牌和BP公司正在從二疊紀盆地撤除鉆機，后者從其頁巖業務的計劃支出中減少了10億美元。

消失的現金

五大石油巨頭的運營現金總額較上年同期下降29%，至270億美元左右，不足以支付股息、利息、運營費用和投資。

當時布倫特原油的平均價格約為每桶50美元。布倫特原油是全球大多數石油運輸的定價基準。根據BP公司的數據，即便是考慮到最近油價的回升，今年第二季度油價平均仍不到20美元。

現金流危機

企業已求助于出售債券和獲取新的信貸安排，以保持流動性健康。對其中一些人來說，問題在于他們能在多長時間內繼續累積債務。

今年第一季度，BP公司的杠桿比率(凈債務與股本之比)飆升了5個百分點，達到36%。盡管魯尼說，這一增長部分是臨時營運資金增加的結果，但他拒絕給出何時會回到20%至30%的舒適區間的時間表。

對于雪佛龍首席財務官皮埃爾?布雷伯來說，債務不是問題。他表示，該公司有“足夠的能力”在長期低迷時期借款，并以每桶30美元的油價支付兩年的當前股息。

裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Big Oil emerged from first-quarter earnings battered and bruised, but things are only going to get uglier.

Major oil and gas producers from Norway to the U.S. saw profit plunge in the opening three months of the year. Exxon Mobil reported its first loss in over 30 years, while Shell cut its dividend for the first time since the Second World War.

And that was only the result of the initial spread of the coronavirus. Things have gotten even worse since a global pandemic caused an unprecedented oil-market slump. There are some signs of recovery on the horizon, but companies were united in their warnings that the current quarter will be tougher than the first.

A few key takeaways show which companies can endure another three months of pain, and those that will struggle:

Dividends in Play

Big Oil’s generous dividends have long been its main attraction to investors. But thanks to Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden they are no longer sacrosanct, after he slashed his company’s payout by two thirds.

Exxon and Chevron said they remain unwavering in their commitment to the dividend. BP Plc CEO Bernard Looney was more equivocal, saying his board would review the payout on a quarterly basis.

Falling Output

Several CEOs said production shut-downs are already happening, whether mandated by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or motivated by low prices. That means most major companies will pump less oil and gas in the second quarter.

Output is already plunging in the U.S., and Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips plan to cut as much as 660,000 barrels a day by the end of June. Shell and BP are removing rigs from the Permian, with the latter taking $1 billion out of planned spending in its shale business.

Vanishing Cash

For the five largest oil majors combined cash from operations plunged 29% from a year earlier to about $27 billion -- not enough to pay for dividends, interest payments, operating expenses and investments.

That was in a quarter where Dated Brent -- the benchmark against which most of the world’s oil shipments are priced -- averaged about $50 a barrel. Even with the recent recovery in prices, the marker has averaged less than $20 so far in the second quarter, according to BP data.

Cash-Flow Crunch

Companies have resorted to selling bonds and taking out new credit facilities to keep liquidity healthy. For some of them, there are questions about how long they can keep piling on debt.

BP’s gearing -- the ratio of net debt to equity -- shot up 5 percentage points to 36% in the first quarter. While Looney said part of that increase was the result of a temporary working capital build, he refused to give a timeframe for when it would get back to its 20% to 30% comfort range.

For Chevron Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber, debt wasn’t an issue. The company has “more than enough” capacity to borrow through a long downturn, and to pay the current dividend for two years at $30 oil, he said.