據今日油價6月1日報道，由于需求銳減，今年世界各地的煉油廠不得不減少加工。然而，下游行業出現了一個結構性問題——一波過度建設的浪潮導致了煉油產能過剩，這個問題可能會持續數年。根據國際能源署（IEA）的數據，從2019年12月到2020年3月，煉油加工量每天下降800萬桶，而4月份的數據可能更糟。盡管如此，該機構在5月份的石油市場報告中寫道:“沒有其他確鑿證據表明，煉油行業的放緩幅度足以與我們估計的需求崩潰相匹配。”IEA估計，第二季度全球煉廠日產量可能比去年同期減少1340萬桶。

值得注意的是，在美國，煉油開采率似乎已經觸底，并開始反彈。截至5月22日的一周，美國煉廠原油日處理量為1299.1萬桶，高于兩周前的1238.3萬桶，不過由于市場崩盤，煉油廠的日產量仍下降了300-400萬桶。汽油需求從4月中旬的531.1萬桶/天躍升至5月22日的725.3萬桶/天，這是需求上升的明顯跡象。

然而，展望未來數周或數月的數據，下游行業面臨著更大的問題。過去幾年，石油行業在世界各地的煉油廠投資了數百億美元，其中僅在2019年就投資了約520億美元。大型煉油廠的超常擴建導致了產能過剩。

國際能源署在其《世界能源投資2020報告》中表示:“數年的投資增加，導致2019年新增煉油產能達到220萬桶/天的創紀錄水平。”

去年煉油產能增加了220萬桶/天，與需求增長80萬桶/天形成鮮明對比。

未來5年，該行業還有600萬桶/天的新煉油產能正在建設中。目前，分析師們正在就“是否已經觸及石油需求峰值”進行爭論。即使假設需求沒有達到1億桶/天的峰值，也需要幾年時間才能再次超過這一閾值。很少有人認為，到2025年，石油日需求量將增長600萬桶。

因此，許多煉油廠可能會被關閉。有些公司有一定的實力，能夠經受住這場風暴。國際能源署指出，中東的煉油廠因為廉價的原料而擁有“結構性優勢”，而亞洲煉油廠的優勢則是靠近快速增長的需求中心。

國際能源署表示，所有這些趨勢——產能過剩、較弱煉油廠承受的壓力以及向國家控制的轉變，可能會因為2020年的危機而得到加強。短期內這種地域差異還將擴大。亞洲經濟體在應對疫情方面做得更好，復蘇速度也比歐洲和美國更快。這些國家的煉油廠正在經歷市場狀況的改善。

JBC Energy表示:“在這種艱難的環境下，更有韌性的煉油商(不僅是亞洲的煉油商)擴大市場份額的努力，可能會進一步將較脆弱的煉油商擠出市場，最終在中長期內減輕一些壓力。”

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

The World Has Too Many Oil Refineries

At the start of the global pandemic in March, refineries around the world had to cut back on processing amid collapsing demand. However, there is a structural problem underway in the downstream sector – a wave of overbuilding has led to too much refining capacity, a problem that could linger for years. Refining processing fell by 8 million barrels per day (mb/d) between December 2019 and March 2020, according to the IEA, and data for April is likely far worse. Still, “[a]necdotal evidence from elsewhere does not point to a refining slowdown big enough to match our estimated demand collapse,” the agency wrote in its May Oil Market Report. The agency estimates that second quarter throughput could be down 13.4 mb/d, year-on-year.

But in the U.S. at least, refining run rates appear to have bottomed out and have started to rebound. For the week ending on May 22, U.S. refineries processed 12.991 mb/d, up from 12.383 mb/d two weeks earlier, although they are still down by 3-4 mb/d due to the market crash. Gasoline demand jumped from 5.311 mb/d in mid-April to 7.253 mb/d by May 22, a sign of rising demand.

However, looking out beyond a few weeks or months’ worth of data, the downstream sector faces a larger problem. The oil industry has invested tens of billions of dollars in refineries around the world in the past few years, including around $52 billion in 2019 alone. The extraordinary buildout of major refineries has led to overcapacity.

“Several years of heightened investment led to a record amount of new refining capacity (2.2 mb/d) coming online in 2019,” the IEA said in its World Energy Investment 2020 report.

The 2.2-mb/d increase in refining capacity last year stands in stark contrast to the rather weak demand growth of 0.8 mb/d.

Over the next five years, the industry has another 6 mb/d of new refining capacity in the works. It’s worth remembering that this comes at a time when analysts are debating whether or not we have already hit peak oil demand. Even if one assumes demand didn’t peak at 100 mb/d on the eve of the pandemic, it will still take a few years before that threshold is surpassed again. There are very few people who see demand growing by 6 mb/d by 2025.

As a result, a lot of refineries could be on the chopping block. Some have certain strengths that will allow them to weather the storm. The IEA notes that refineries in the Middle East have “structural advantages” due to proximity to cheap feedstock, while those in Asia are close to fast-growing demand centers.

All of these trends – overcapacity, pressure on weaker refineries and a shift towards state control – are “likely to be reinforced as a result of the 2020 crisis,” the IEA said.

The geographical disparity will also be magnified in the short run due to how the COVID-19 pandemic is playing out. Asian economies have dealt with the pandemic better and are recovering faster than Europe and the United States. Refineries in those countries are experiencing improving market conditions.

“In this difficult environment, efforts by the more resilient refiners, not only in Asia, to gain market share may further contribute to pushing out the most vulnerable players, ultimately leading to some pressure relief in the medium to longer term,” JBC Energy said.