據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2020年5月29日休斯頓報(bào)道，路透社周五（29日）對(duì)數(shù)十位石油分析師的月度調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，盡管歐佩克+和北美紛紛減產(chǎn)，而需求也在緩慢增長，但由于兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體關(guān)系重新緊張，今年的平均油價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)將不會(huì)比目前的油價(jià)高很多。

被路透社調(diào)查的43位分析師認(rèn)為，美國基準(zhǔn)WTI原油今年的平均價(jià)格將為每桶32.78美元，大致相當(dāng)于5月29日早盤的水準(zhǔn)。

路透社調(diào)查的分析師預(yù)計(jì)，今年布蘭特原油均價(jià)將為每桶37.58美元。與4月調(diào)查相比，分析師已調(diào)高了他們對(duì)這兩種基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格的預(yù)估，當(dāng)時(shí)他們?cè)A(yù)計(jì)WTI原油均價(jià)將為每桶31.47美元，而布倫特原油均價(jià)將為每桶35.84美元。

今年迄今，布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶42.37美元。

29日稍早，油價(jià)日內(nèi)跌幅超過了2%，并有望錄得5周來首周下跌。然而，在經(jīng)歷了石油需求和石油期貨的“黑色四月”后，5月份石油價(jià)格上漲了近40%，因此盡管出現(xiàn)了周跌幅，但價(jià)格仍有望創(chuàng)下自1999年3月以來的最佳月度表現(xiàn)。

對(duì)于今年的平均油價(jià)，分析師預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克+協(xié)議內(nèi)外的主要產(chǎn)油國將減產(chǎn)，未來幾個(gè)月支撐油價(jià)的需求將恢復(fù)。然而，接受路透社調(diào)查的分析師預(yù)計(jì)，基本面改善帶來的價(jià)格上漲可能會(huì)受到美國股市突然上漲的限制，這可能會(huì)損害后疫情時(shí)代的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和貿(mào)易。

本周早些時(shí)候，摩根士丹利表示，由于需求回升，布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將在今年年底前達(dá)到每桶40美元。需求回升的速度快于該行此前的預(yù)測(cè)。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Are Unlikely To Break $40 This Year

Despite production cuts from OPEC+ and North America and slowly improving demand, oil prices are not expected to average much higher than current prices in 2020 because of renewedthe tensions, the monthly Reuters poll of dozens of oil analysts showed on Friday.

According to 43 analysts surveyed by Reuters, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude is set to average $32.78 a barrel in 2020, which is roughly where the contract was trading early on Friday.

Brent Crude prices are expected to average $37.58 per barrel this year, the analysts in the Reuters poll predicted. Experts have lifted their forecasts for both benchmarks compared to the April poll, when WTI Crude was expected to average $31.47 a barrel and Brent Crude was seen averaging $35.84 per barrel.

So far this year, Brent Crude prices have averaged $42.37 a barrel.

Early on Friday, oil prices were down on the day more than 2 percent and on track for a first weekly loss in five weeks. However, after the ‘black April’ for oil demand and oil futures, this month the price of oil has rallied by nearly 40 percent, so despite being on course for a weekly loss, prices were on track to score the best monthly performance since March 1999.

For the average prices in 2020, analysts expect the cuts from major producers in and outside the OPEC+ pact and the recovering demand to support oil in the coming months. However, the analysts polled by Reuters expect that price gains from improving fundamentals could be capped by flare-ups in the U.S.-China relations, which could damage the post-coronavirus economic recovery and trade.

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley said it expected Brent Crude to trade at $40 a barrel by the end of the year thanks to the recovery in demand, which has taken off faster than the bank had predicted.