據(jù)路透社6月4日?qǐng)?bào)道，挪威國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(SSB)周四發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)行業(yè)調(diào)查顯示，挪威主要的經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力——石油和天然氣投資今年增長低于預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)2021年還將大幅下降。

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，降幅最大的將是新儲(chǔ)量勘探和開發(fā)計(jì)劃的支出，而正在進(jìn)行的油田建設(shè)工作基本上仍將如預(yù)期進(jìn)行。

根據(jù)石油公司的數(shù)據(jù)，這些備受關(guān)注的預(yù)測(cè)顯示，2020年的投資計(jì)劃已從2月份的1854億挪威克朗（190億美元）削減至1803億挪威克朗，但仍高于2019年的1775億挪威克朗。2021年挪威石油行業(yè)的投資預(yù)計(jì)為1456億挪威克朗，而三個(gè)月前的預(yù)估為1520億挪威克朗。

由于化石燃料需求的大幅下跌，北海石油價(jià)格在4月份觸及20年來的低點(diǎn)，但隨著主要產(chǎn)油國同意減產(chǎn)，價(jià)格有所回升。包括挪威國家石油公司Equinor在內(nèi)的石油公司表示，它們打算同時(shí)削減運(yùn)營和資本支出，以便在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期保留現(xiàn)金。

挪威國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局補(bǔ)充稱，目前正在議會(huì)審議的減稅計(jì)劃可能導(dǎo)致企業(yè)批準(zhǔn)更多項(xiàng)目，包括NOAKA、Eldfisk North、Grevling和Lavrans油田開發(fā)項(xiàng)目。因此，2021年的投資支出降幅不太可能低于本次調(diào)查顯示的降幅。

受到需求和油價(jià)疲軟的雙重影響，近日，挪威央行首次將關(guān)鍵政策利率下調(diào)至0%。經(jīng)紀(jì)商Handelsbanken Capital Markets在給客戶的報(bào)告中寫道:“毫無疑問，今明兩年，實(shí)際石油投資將大幅下滑，這將對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體復(fù)蘇產(chǎn)生壓力。”

(1美元= 9.4754挪威克朗)

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Norway oil firms slash investment plans amid pandemic

Norwegian oil and gas investment, a key economic driver, is expected to decline sharply in 2021 after rising less than previously anticipated this year, an industry survey by the national statistics agency (SSB) showed on Thursday.

The biggest drop will come in the exploration for new reserves and in spending on development plans, while ongoing oilfield construction work continues largely as expected, the data showed.

The closely watched forecasts, based on data from oil companies, show 2020 investment plans have been cut to 180.3 billion Norwegian crowns ($19 billion) from 185.4 billion seen in February, but still up from 177.5 billion in 2019.

Next year, investment in Norway’s oil sector is now projected at 145.6 billion crowns, compared with a forecast of 152 billion three months ago, SSB said.

The price of North Sea oil hit two-decade lows in April as coronavirus lockdowns and travel restrictions sharply reduced demand for fossil fuels, but have since recovered some losses as major producing nations agreed to cut their output.

Oil companies, including Norway’s state-controlled Equinor, have said they intend to reduce both operating and capital spending in order to preserve cash during the downturn.

A planned tax cut currently making its way through parliament could lead companies to sanction more projects however, including the NOAKA, Eldfisk North, Grevling and Lavrans oilfield developments, the statistics agency added.

“Therefore, it is not unlikely that the decline for 2021 will be less severe than what is indicated in this survey,” SSB said.

Norway’s central bank recently cut its key policy interest rate to zero percent for the first time, citing the twin impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and weak oil prices.

“There are no doubts that real petroleum investments are headed for a significant decline during 2020-21, something which will weigh on the recovery of the overall economy,” brokers Handelsbanken Capital Markets wrote in a note to clients.

($1 = 9.4754 Norwegian crowns)