據離岸能源6月8日消息，根據雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）的數據，預計到2022年，海上風能的資本支出(CAPEX)將超過歐洲上游石油和天然氣行業的支出。

分析師表示，疫情造成的石油市場崩潰將推遲西歐的一些油氣開發，使海上油氣部門的資本支出在2022年之前繼續呈下降趨勢。

鑒于多個項目的最終投資決定(FID)被推遲，海上石油和天然氣的投資減少，再加上海上風能行業的活躍度增加，雷斯塔能源預計這兩個市場最快將在明年達到投資平等。

2015年，歐洲用于海上風電的資本支出超過了100億美元大關，此后一直徘徊在每年100億至150億美元之間。年資本支出水平預計將從2019年的約111億美元上升到2020年的約138億美元，2021年為182億美元，2022年將超過220億美元。

雷斯塔能源表示，豐富的石油供應和減少的需求對石油價格造成了影響，因此，歐洲海上油氣上游的年度資本支出預計將從2019年的逾250億美元下降到2022年的170億美元以下。

雷斯塔能源的海上風電項目經理Alexander Flotre表示:“隨著各國努力實現其雄心勃勃的2030年目標，歐洲海上風電的發展預計將在未來幾年蓬勃發展，這將需要大量投資。”

“預計到2025年，試運行活動將會增加，預計在2023-2025年投入運營的項目已經在推動2020年的資本支出。這一趨勢將在未來幾年持續下去。”

從歷史上看，歐洲一直是海上風能開發的主要市場，在2019年底占全球裝機容量的近80%。盡管未來幾年中國、東南亞和美國預計將出現強勁增長，但歐洲的裝機容量預計將在2025年之前保持第一的位置。

Flotre表示：“與傳統的石油和天然氣業務相比，許多服務公司已經過渡到越來越專注于海上風電活動。對這些企業來說，海上風電市場的成長為它們提供了一個適時的緩沖，緩解了傳統油田服務領域投資下降帶來的沖擊。”

裘寅 編譯自 離岸能源

原文如下：

European offshore wind CAPEX to top upstream oil & gas in 2022 – Rystad Energy

Capital expenditure (CAPEX) on offshore wind is expected to surpass upstream oil & gas spending in Europe in 2022, according to Rystad Energy.

The oil market collapse caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is set to delay several oil and gas developments in Western Europe, putting capital expenditure in the offshore sector on a continued downwards trajectory through 2022, the analyst said.

In light of the postponement of multiple final investment decisions (FIDs) on projects and lower investments in offshore oil and gas, coupled with increasing activity in the offshore wind sector, Rystad Energy expects that the two markets will reach parity as soon as next year.

Capex towards offshore wind in Europe surpassed the USD 10 billion mark in 2015 and has since hovered in the range of USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion per year. Annual CAPEX levels are expected to rise from around USD 11.1 billion in 2019 to around USD 13.8 billion in 2020, USD 18.2 billion in 2021, and more than USD 22 billion in 2022.

The abundant oil supply and reduced demand have taken their toll on the oil price, and consequently annual CAPEX towards upstream offshore oil and gas in Europe is expected to decline from more than USD 25 billion in 2019 to less than USD 17 billion in 2022, Rystad Energy said.

“Offshore wind development in Europe is expected to flourish in the coming years as countries strive to reach their ambitious 2030-targets – and large investments will be required,” said Alexander Flotre, Rystad Energy’s project manager for offshore wind.

“Commissioning activity is expected to increase towards 2025, and projects expected to be operational in 2023-2025 are already driving up capital expenditure in 2020. This trend will continue in the coming years.”

Historically, Europe has been the key market for offshore wind development, accounting for almost 80% of global installed capacity at the end of 2019. While strong growth is expected in China, South East Asia, and the US in the years to come, Europe is expected to maintain its number one position through 2025 in terms of installed capacity.

“Many service companies have already transitioned towards concentrating increasingly on offshore wind activities, compared to their legacy oil and gas business. For these players, the growth in the offshore wind market provides a well-timed cushion that softens the blow of declining investments in the traditional oilfield services sector,“ Flotre said.