據(jù)6月11日Petroleum Economist報(bào)道，與煤炭和石油相比，天然氣對(duì)疫情的影響將更具彈性，但并不是說(shuō)能避免受影響，國(guó)際能源署預(yù)測(cè)，2020年天然氣需求將出現(xiàn)有史以來(lái)最大降幅。

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署今天發(fā)布的五年天然氣市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)顯示，由于2019疫情影響和冬季異常溫和氣候，2020年全球天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將下降4%，即1500億美元。四分之三的削減將發(fā)生在歐洲、北美、亞洲和歐亞大陸等成熟市場(chǎng)。

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)執(zhí)行主任法提赫·比羅爾的說(shuō)法，在中國(guó)和印度的政策推動(dòng)下，需求預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年和2022年出現(xiàn)反彈，但不會(huì)恢復(fù)到以往的水平。該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，與大流行前的相比，到2025年，需求將減少750億立方米/年。

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)，2020年第一季度天然氣消費(fèi)量同比增長(zhǎng)1.6%。3月和4月工業(yè)活動(dòng)的逐步重啟對(duì)天然氣消費(fèi)的影響有限，因?yàn)槭澜缙渌貐^(qū)的封鎖大幅降低了對(duì)出口商品的需求。

歐洲是受影響最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)，到目前為止，同比下降了7%，主要原因是幾個(gè)國(guó)家的限制措施，因?yàn)槠浒l(fā)電部門(mén)占總需求降幅的一半。

短期來(lái)看，由于需求減少，供應(yīng)難以找到市場(chǎng)，主要現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格指數(shù)跌至歷史低點(diǎn)，而油價(jià)暴跌打擊了長(zhǎng)期與石油掛鉤供應(yīng)合同的收入——盡管最近幾周油價(jià)出現(xiàn)了部分回升。國(guó)際能源署表示，隨著現(xiàn)貨指數(shù)繼續(xù)走向新低，一些供應(yīng)商正面臨虧損。

中短期來(lái)看，北美、非洲和俄羅斯在的項(xiàng)目在過(guò)去幾年陸續(xù)上線，項(xiàng)目數(shù)量不斷攀升，需求低于預(yù)期的情況將更加嚴(yán)重。僅在2019年就新增了960億立方米的額定產(chǎn)能。報(bào)告稱(chēng)，這種供需錯(cuò)位給確保生產(chǎn)來(lái)源多樣化和全球供應(yīng)安全的未來(lái)投資帶來(lái)挑戰(zhàn)。

但并非所有天然氣需求的不確定性都是負(fù)面的。低油價(jià)繼續(xù)推動(dòng)發(fā)電行業(yè)改用燃料，從煤炭轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣是去年推動(dòng)能源消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的最大因素，每年增加了逾550億立方米。在美國(guó)，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電再創(chuàng)新高，占總發(fā)電量的38%，而燃煤發(fā)電則大幅下降，這一趨勢(shì)一直持續(xù)到2020年。

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署的數(shù)據(jù)，印度的天然氣消耗量在2020年第一季度同比增長(zhǎng)了約10%，但在3月25日實(shí)行全國(guó)封鎖后急劇下降。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，四月份的消費(fèi)量同比下降了25%。小型工業(yè)和用于運(yùn)輸?shù)膲嚎s天然氣分銷(xiāo)是受沖擊最嚴(yán)重的部門(mén)，而燃?xì)獍l(fā)電增長(zhǎng)了14%——盡管電力需求下降了24%，因?yàn)楦阋说倪M(jìn)口天然氣滿足了高峰需求。

5月份逐步取消限制使印度的化工廠和下游工業(yè)得以重新開(kāi)工，這應(yīng)該會(huì)導(dǎo)致天然氣消費(fèi)的反彈。而且，如果全球天然氣價(jià)格長(zhǎng)期保持低位，對(duì)價(jià)格敏感的亞洲市場(chǎng)在增加天然氣使用量方面可能處于特別有利的地位。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Petroleum Economist

原文如下：

Asia to lead gas demand recovery – IEA

Gas will be more resilient to the effects of Covid-19 than coal and oil but is “far from immune”, says the IEA, as it forecasts the largest-ever demand decline in 2020

Global demand for natural gas is forecast to fall by 4pc, or 150bn m3, in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and “an exceptionally mild winter”, according to the IEA’s five-year gas market forecast, released today. Three-quarters of this slump will be in the mature markets of Europe, North America, and Asia and Eurasia.

Demand is expected to bounce back in 2021 and 2022—led by policy-driven growth in China and India—but it will not be a return to business as usual, according to the IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol. The agency expects the Covid-19 crisis to result in 75bn m3/yr of lost demand by 2025 compared with pre-pandemic forecasts.

As of early June, all major gas markets have experienced a fall in demand or, in the case of China, much more sluggish growth than before. According to China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), apparent gas consumption increased by 1.6pc year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. The progressive restart of industrial activity in March and April had a limited impact on gas use as lockdowns in other parts of the world sharply reduced demand for exported goods.

Europe has been the hardest hit region, with a 7pc year-on-year decline so far in 2020, mainly due to nationwide lockdowns in several countries. Its power generation sector accounts for half of the total demand decline.

Price challenges

In the short term, supplies struggling to find markets amid reduced demand have pressured major spot price indices to record lows, while collapsing oil prices have hit revenues from long-term oil-indexed supply contracts—although recent weeks have seen a partial oil price recovery. As spot indices continue to explore new lows, some suppliers are facing negative netbacks, says the IEA.

Over the short-to-medium term, the lower-than-expected demand will be compounded by the continuing ramp-up to plateau levels of projects in North America, Africa and Russia that have come online in the last few years. New nameplate capacity of 96bn m3/yr was added in 2019 alone. This supply-demand mismatch “cast[s] a shadow over the future investments needed to ensure the renewal of production sources and global security of supply”, says the report.

But not all gas demand uncertainties are to the downside. Low prices continue to drive fuel switching in power generation, with switching from coal to natural gas the largest single contributor to consumption growth last year, accounting for over 55bn m3/yr of additional demand. In the US, gas-fired power generation reached a new high, rising to a record share of 38pc of total generation while coal burn declined sharply, and the trend has continued into 2020.

Asian promise

India’s gas consumption rose by some 10pc year-on-year during the first quarter of 2020 but fell sharply after a nationwide lockdown was imposed on 25 March, according to IEA figures. Preliminary data suggests consumption was down by 25pc year-on-year in April. Small industry and compressed natural gas distribution for transport were the hardest hit sectors, while gas-fired power generation was up by 14pc—despite a 24pc fall in electricity demand—as cheaper gas imports were used to meet peak demand.

The progressive lifting of restrictions in May allowed Indian chemical plants, factories and downstream industries to restart, which should lead to a rebound in gas consumption. And, if global gas prices remain lower for longer, price-sensitive Asian markets could be particularly well-placed to up their gas use at the expense of competing fuels.