據油價網6月11日奧斯陸報道，在上游行業第一季度業績公布后，挪威雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）發表的一份分析報告顯示，今年全球上游油氣行業的投資預算狀況比此前預期的更為悲觀。據預測，今年全球上游油氣行業支出預計將達到3830億美元，為15年來的最低水平，與去年相比將減少驚人的29%，即減少1560億美元。

去年全球上游油氣投資估計為5390億美元，今年這一降幅將使今年年度投資低于前一次低迷時期的水平。明年全球上游油氣支出預計也將基本持平，僅略高于今年，為3860億美元。在COVID-19大流行之前，雷斯塔能源公司曾預計，今年和明年全球上游油氣投資總額將維持在去年的水平。

雷斯塔能源公司在分析報告中說： “我們預計今年全球頁巖和致密油的投資將受到最大沖擊，目前預計年降幅為52.2%，至673億美元。油砂投資緊隨其后，降幅為44%，至51億美元。其他陸上投資預計今年將下降23.4%，至1824億美元。

受投資縮水影響最小的行業是海上。據估計，今年全球海上深水支出估計將下降15.6%，至690億美元，而海上大陸架的支出將減少約14%，至595億美元。

由于此次影響將比上一次衰退更為嚴重，油氣公司正在竭力捍衛股東價值，并在近期轉向更為保守的支出策略。雷斯塔能源公司上游分析師奧爾加·薩溫科娃說：“由于全球上游油氣行業面臨著低油價、需求下降和匯率波動的壓力，每一次美元貶值都將直接影響到整個行業?！?/span>

危機開始時，由于運營商預算在之前的市場低迷中已經相當緊張，今年全球上游油氣支出預計將下降15%至20%，比去年的總投資減少大約800億至1000億美元。但是，在這個新的價格現實中，運營商似乎被迫進一步削減支出。

從百分比來看，這個投資降幅與2014-2015年相仿。然而，這一次行業支出正在從較低的山頂掉到較深的谷底，這將很快——即使是在短期內——影響行業績效。

在2014-2015年，由于油氣公司能夠調整和精簡，27%的支出下降并沒有顯著影響生產績效。相反，在所有供應部門，一些參與者甚至設法同比增加產量。由于關閉生產相關的成本太高，幾乎沒有生產被關閉，即使是在盈虧平衡價格最高的設施。削減支出主要是通過降低供應鏈成本和削減不必要的支出來實現的。

然而，由于今年幾乎所有供應部門都將減產，石油行業維持高油價的能力正受到考驗。從長期來看，減少棕地資本支出將使維持現有產量更具挑戰性，而減少綠地資本支出將使新產量難以取代現有產量下降。這兩個因素可能會影響未來全球液體供應的穩定性，從而徹底改變行業格局。

分析報告說：“我們的研究表明，到目前為止，全球約有125家勘探開發公司已經達成削減開支的協議，今年將削減1000億美元。今年國家石油公司是全球削減開支的最大貢獻者，減少320億美元。大多數頁巖運營商也修改了他們的資本指導范圍。

雖然國家石油公司通常不會進行如此大幅度的削減，但在每桶油當量25美元的環境下，我們迎來了一個新的現實，即使是最可靠的公司也在勒緊褲腰帶，準備進一步削減開支。重要的是，第一季度報告還顯示，幾乎所有石油巨頭都將產量下降視為生存不可避免的一部分，他們選擇優化現金流，提供可持續的股息。

薩溫科娃總結說：“油氣公司現在高度厭惡風險，財務和運營績效面臨巨大壓力。然而，一旦危機過去，勘探和生產公司將需要為可能等待著他們的機會和威脅做好準備。他們未來的成功取決于他們在適應新的戰略、利用新出現的機遇和降低風險方面的謹慎程度?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Upstream Oil & Gas Investment Crashes To 15-Year Low

Following the publication of the upstream industry’s first quarter results, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals a gloomier investment-budget picture than previously thought. Global spending is now forecasted to reach $383 billion this year, the lowest level in 15 years and a staggering 29% decrease of $156 billion compared to 2019.

With 2019’s upstream investments calculated at $539 billion, the decline is set to bring annual investment to a level lower than that of the previous downturn. Spending is also expected to be largely flat in 2021, landing only marginally higher than 2020 at $386 billion. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Rystad Energy expected total upstream investment would maintain last year’s levels, both in 2020 and 2021.

We expect shale and tight oil investments will take the biggest hit, now forecast to fall by 52.2% y/y to $67.3 billion. Oil sands investments will follow, with a decline of 44% to $5.1 billion. Other onshore investments are forecast to fall by 23.4% to $182.4 billion this year.

The sector which will be least affected in terms of deflated investment is offshore. Offshore deepwater spending is estimated to fall by 15.6% to $69 billion this year, while offshore shelf will lose about 14%, landing at $59.5 billion.

“As the impact will be more severe than in the previous downturn, companies are fiercely defending shareholder value and pivoting towards more conservative spending strategies in the near-term. As the global upstream sector contends with low prices, falling demand, and fluctuating exchange rates, every dollar cut will strike directly to the bone,” says Rystad Energy’s upstream analyst Olga Savenkova.

In the beginning of the crisis, it was assumed that global upstream spending would fall by around 15% to 20% in 2020 – around $80 billion to $100 billion below total investments in 2019 – as operator budgets were already quite lean after the previous market downturn. But, in this new price reality, it appears that operators were forced to cut even deeper.

In terms of percentages, the drop in investment is comparable to 2014–2015. However, this time around, industry spending is falling from a lower mountain to a deeper valley, which will very quickly affect industry performance, even in a short term.

In 2014-2015, the 27% fall in spending did not significantly impact production performance as companies were able to adapt and streamline. On the contrary, within all supply segments some players even managed to increase y/y production. Virtually no production was shut-in, even at the facilities with the highest breakeven prices, as the costs associated with shuttering production were too high. Spending cuts were mainly delivered through lower supply chain costs and by cutting out unnecessary expenses.

However, the industry’s ability to keep high costs per barrel is now being put to the test, with almost all supply segments cutting production in 2020. In the longer-term, reduced brownfield capex will make it more challenging to maintain existing production, while reduced greenfield capital spending will make it difficult to replace declines with new production coming on stream. These two factors could impact the stability of the global liquids supply in the future, changing the industry landscape for good.

Our research indicates that about 125 E&P’s have thus far communicated spending cuts, amounting to a reduction of $100 billion in 2020. National Oil Companies (NOCs) are the largest contributors to the global reduction, decreasing spending by $32 billion. Most shale operators have revised their capital guidance range as well.

Although NOCs would not normally be expected to make such drastic cuts, the $25 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) environment that we have experienced has ushered in a new reality, where even the most reliable companies are tightening their belts and embracing deeper cuts. Importantly, first quarter reports also revealed that almost all majors are seeing production decline as an inevitable part of survival, choosing to optimize cash flows and provide sustainable dividends.

“Companies are now highly risk-averse, with finances and operational performance under intense pressure. Nevertheless, E&Ps will need to prepare for opportunities and threats that may await them once the crisis is past. Their future success depends on how prudent they are in adapting new strategies, taking advantage of emerging opportunities and mitigating risks,” Savenkova concludes.