據6月22日Rigzone報道，油價目前已進入中期復蘇階段。

Rystad能源公司石油市場主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示，油價將在每桶40美元上下波動一段時間，且不太可能出現巨大波動。

Tonhaugen強調，在目前階段，進一步上漲至每桶45-50美元的水平是不太合理的，因為需求方面仍存在擔憂。他在一份聲明中表示:“當前的危機并沒有消失，全球主要市場的感染病例在增加，人們有理由擔心，世界將在很長一段時間內面臨挑戰。如果感染和住院人數繼續上升，第二波浪潮成為現實，隨著需求下降，市場將再次低迷。雖然不會像今年上半年那么嚴重。”

Rystad強調，伊拉克必須提出其計劃，以使產量達到歐佩克+的規定目標。Tonhaugen警告稱，利雅得和莫斯科的耐心正在減弱，并表示未來幾天將關注市場對伊拉克計劃的反應。

他補充道：“如果歐佩克+認為其聯盟成員不能夠信任，那么維持協議就不是理所當然的了。在其他方面(需求)都穩定的情況下，如果擺在明面上的產量計劃是值得信賴的，且相關承諾得到了遵守，我們可以預期油價在下次歐佩克+會議前將在每桶40-45美元之間波動。"

王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Prices Reach Interim Recovery

Oil prices have now reached an interim stage of recovery.

That’s according to Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaugen, who outlined that prices will fluctuate around the $40 mark “for a while” and that “huge deviations” would not be likely.

Further gains to levels of $45-50 would not be justified at this stage as there are still valid concerns on the demand side, Tonhaugen highlighted.

“The pandemic has not disappeared, it’s tiring for many to refer to Covid-19 again and again, but the reality demands it,” Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday.

“Infections are rising in key markets around the world and there are valid concerns that the world is in for a prolonged period of dealing with its consequences,” he added.

“If infections and hospitalizations rise even more and a second wave becomes a reality, the market will get depressed again with demand declining. Not as much as in the first half of the year though, as the extent of lockdowns that we have experienced was too painful to bare for many countries,” Tonhaugen continued.

The Rystad representative also highlighted that today is the day that Iraq must present its plan to get production down in line with its OPEC+ targets. Tonhaugen warned that patience by Riyadh and Moscow is running thin and said the market will be watching the reactions to Iraq’s plans in the coming days.

“If OPEC+ sees that it cannot trust the members of the alliance, it’s not for granted that the deal will be maintained. What if it gets scrapped?” Tonhaugen said.

“With everything else stable (demand), if compliance plans that are put on the table are trustworthy and commitments are kept, we can expect prices to move between $40 and $45 maximum before the next OPEC+ meeting, which will be another benchmark event,” Tonhaugen added.