據(jù)路透社6月30日報道，調(diào)查顯示，2020年油價將穩(wěn)定在每桶40美元左右。隨著歐佩克+主導的減產(chǎn)以及各經(jīng)濟體從疫情影響中逐漸轉(zhuǎn)好，第四季度和2021年的經(jīng)濟復蘇勢頭將增強。

此次調(diào)查的45位分析師預計，布倫特原油在2020年的平均價格將為每桶40.41美元，高于上月類似調(diào)查中預測的每桶37.58美元。

今年以來，全球基準原油的平均價格為42.10美元/桶。周二，油價略低于42美元/桶，而西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格為每桶39.19美元。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油今年的平均價格將為每桶36.10美元，高于5月份調(diào)查時預測的每桶32.78美元。

在參加5月和6月調(diào)查的37名受訪者中，有26人上調(diào)了對布倫特原油2020年的預測價格。法國巴黎銀行商品研究主管Harry Tchilinguirian表示，第三季度經(jīng)濟復蘇步伐將保持溫和。

但是，在歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國自愿限制產(chǎn)量、市場推動的產(chǎn)量下降和需求的連續(xù)復蘇以及貨幣和財政刺激措施加強的經(jīng)濟活動恢復的綜合影響下，第四季度的增長將加快。

根據(jù)一項新協(xié)議，歐佩克+自5月以來一直在創(chuàng)紀錄地每日減產(chǎn)970萬桶，以支撐受疫情打擊的油價和需求。歐佩克+ 5月份的減產(chǎn)配額執(zhí)行率為87%。

然而，分析人士警告稱，全球新增新冠肺炎病例(截至6月29日已超過1015萬例)可能會引發(fā)進一步的限制措施，減緩經(jīng)濟復蘇，進而影響需求。

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil prices set for modest recovery on OPEC+ cuts, improving demand: Reuters poll

Oil prices will consolidate at around $40 a barrel this year, with a recovery gaining steam in the fourth quarter and into 2021 on OPEC-led production cuts and as economies limp back from coronavirus lockdowns, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

The survey of 45 analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $40.41 a barrel in 2020, up from a forecast of $37.58 in a similar survey last month.

The global benchmark has averaged $42.10 so far this year. It was trading just below $42 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $39.19.

The poll estimates the price of WTI would average $36.10 a barrel this year, up from a forecast of $32.78 in the May survey.

Of the 37 contributors who participated in both the May and June polls, 26 raised their 2020 Brent forecasts.

“The pace of this recovery will remain modest in the third quarter,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.

But it will “accelerate in Q4 under the combined effect of voluntary output restraints by OPEC+ producers, market-driven production declines and a sequential recovery in demand with the reinstatement of economic activity reinforced by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, under a new agreement have been cutting output since May by a record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to support prices and demand hit by the pandemic.

OPEC+ compliance with the cuts in May was 87%.

However, analysts warned that a global rise in COVID-19 cases, which topped 10.15 million as of June 29, could potentially spark further restrictions and slow any economic recovery, and in turn, demand.