據(jù)能源新聞7月3日消息稱，Wood Mackenzie指出，上游勘探對于滿足未來的全球能源需求至關(guān)重要。在2040年之前，全球能源需求的很大一部分將依賴于石油和天然氣。

這家咨詢公司在周三的一份新報(bào)告中表示，在正在進(jìn)行的能源轉(zhuǎn)型中，對勘探的需求正在減少。據(jù)Kallanish Energy報(bào)道，盡管目前勘探常常被視為隨意的，甚至是毫無根據(jù)的，但缺乏勘探可能會導(dǎo)致巨大的供應(yīng)缺口。

報(bào)告說：“即使在2攝氏度的情況下，未來20年全球?qū)κ秃吞烊粴獾睦塾?jì)需求也將至少達(dá)到1.1萬億桶石油當(dāng)量。根據(jù)我們的基本情況預(yù)測，它可能多達(dá)1.4萬億桶石油當(dāng)量。現(xiàn)有油田已開發(fā)的原油可滿足約6400萬桶的需求。這就造成了4600億到760億桶原油的供應(yīng)缺口。”

分析顯示，現(xiàn)有的發(fā)現(xiàn)可以填補(bǔ)整個供應(yīng)缺口，甚至更多。但是，投資是需要的，只有成本最低、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益最好的資源才能吸引資本。

WoodMac預(yù)測，為了確保未來有足夠的石油和天然氣可用，無論能源轉(zhuǎn)型的步伐如何，碳?xì)浠衔锕I(yè)“至少需要在2030年之前保持過去五年的成功率”。

曹海斌 摘譯自 能源新聞

原文如下：

Exploration remains crucial during energy transition

Upstream exploration will be critical in meeting the future global energy demand, much of which is set to rely on oil and gas until well beyond 2040, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The consulting firm said in a new report on Wednesday that the need for exploration in the ongoing energy transition is diminishing. While exploration is now often seen as discretionary or even unwarranted, lack of it could lead to a huge supply gap, Kallanish Energy reports.

“Cumulative global demand for oil and gas over the next two decades will be at least 1,100 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) even in a 2°C scenario. It could be as much as 1,400 Bboe on our base case forecasts. Around 640 Bboe can be met by proven developed supply from onstream fields. This leaves a supply gap of between 460 billion to 760 Bboe,” the report said.

Existing discoveries could meet this entire supply gap, and even more, the analysis suggested. However, investment is needed and only resources with the lowest cost and best economics will attract capital.

To ensure there will be enough oil and gas available in the future, whatever the pace of the energy transition, the hydrocarbon industry “needs to maintain its success rate of the past five years until at least 2030,” WoodMac predicted.