據油價網休斯敦報道，美國頁巖行業正在受到傷害。當全球能源行業受到疫情及其對油價和石油需求的災難性影響的沉重打擊時，西德克薩斯州的頁巖成為經濟崩潰的最大蛋糕。盡管國際布倫特原油基準受到了打擊，但西德克薩斯中質原油價格在4月20日卻暴跌至零以下，當日收盤價接近負40美元，震驚了全球，其結果是毀滅性的，破產潮、大量生產井關閉以及員工的大批解雇和休假席卷了整個二疊紀盆地，無數的德克薩斯州石油城鎮從新興城鎮變成了鬼城。就在不久前，二疊紀盆地的先驅和頁巖行業巨頭切薩皮克能源公司宣布了破產。很難不把此解讀為整個頁巖行業的一個壞兆頭。我們并不是沒有預見到它的到來。

英國《衛報》近日報道稱：“美國頁巖行業先驅之一的切薩皮克能源公司的倒閉，幾乎沒有人感到意外。”“在經歷了石油市場歷史上最黑暗的一個月后，這家四面楚歌的水力壓裂公司陷入了一場金融混亂，包括未能按期支付利息、日益迫近的債券到期期限和沉重的債務。”

切薩皮克能源公司不是第一家受疫情影響而倒閉的美國頁巖公司，也幾乎肯定不會是最后一家。美國有線電視新聞網報道，如果原油價格不改善，美國30%的頁巖公司可能會破產。美國鉆井網站在日前發表的一份報告中寫道，總體而言，這一切聽起來像是頁業行業的近期深淵。“更重要的是，德勤公司的數據分析顯示，自2010年以來，水力壓裂開采企業已經消耗了3000億美元，然而，30%的運營商，無論大小，在每桶35美元油價的情況下，幾乎無法實現盈虧平衡。”

但幾乎可以肯定的是，現在就開始為美國頁巖撰寫大量訃告還為時過早。雖然美國頁巖行業的諸多困境沒有快速解決的辦法，但緩慢復蘇是可能的，甚至是很有可能的。據美國鉆井網站報道，盡管短期前景黯淡，但“與此同時，一些擁有可行探區的頁巖參與者看到正在接近的近期深淵。這些公司縮減了各自的業務規模，為在同一動蕩周期內緩慢但穩健的反彈留下了空間。”

據油價網5月份的一次報道，“美國頁巖行業需要減速才能繼續生存。”美國鉆井網站所描述的長期戰略和慎重決策對保持頁巖活力至關重要。驚慌失措地決定立即重新啟動被關閉生產井，這將破壞頁巖行業反彈的機會。報告還指出“由于WTI期貨價格目前穩守在30美元上方，甚至一度逼近40美元，正是這些公司在引領著緩慢的復蘇，其中包括Parsley能源公司。”

美國二疊紀頁巖盆地的復蘇之路將是緩慢但踏實的，而且復蘇之路肯定不會缺乏耐心。但對于那些能夠堅持下去的頁巖公司——關鍵是能夠共同努力建立協調的復蘇——來說未來仍有希望。然而，未來的二疊紀盆地將永遠不會達到頁巖革命的高度。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Needs To Rethink Its Strategy To Survive

U.S. shale is hurting. While the entire global energy industry has been hit hard by the novel coronavirus pandemic and its disastrous effect on oil prices and oil demand, West Texas shale takes the cake for the biggest economic collapse. While the international Brent crude benchmark did take a beating, the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark stunned the world when it plunged below zero on April 20, closing out the day at nearly $40 in the hole. The results have been devastating. The Permian Basin has been swept by a tidal wave of bankruptcies, shut-in wells, and legions of fired and furloughed employees, converting untold numbers of Texan oil towns from boomtown to ghost town. Just this Sunday, Permian basin pioneer and industry titan Chesapeake Energy declared bankruptcy. It’s difficult not to read the shuttering of this shale golden child as a bad omen for the industry as a whole. Not that we didn’t see it coming.

“The collapse of Chesapeake Energy, one of the pioneers of the US shale industry, took few people by surprise,” the Guardian reported this week. “The embattled fracker slumped into bankruptcy weeks after the darkest month in oil market history, in a financial mess of missed interest payments, looming bond deadlines and crippling debts.”

Chesapeake Energy is not the first U.S. shale casualty of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it almost certainly won’t be the last. CNN reports that as much as 30 percent of all U.S. shale companies could go bankrupt if the price of crude doesn’t improve. “Broadly speaking, it all sounds like a near-term abyss for the sector, writes Rig Zone in a report this week. “What’s more data analysis by Deloitte suggests frackers have burned through $300 billion since 2010, and yet 30 percent of operators both large and small can barely break-even at $35 per barrel.”

But it’s also almost certainly too soon to start writing a wholesale obituary for United States shale (not that plenty of headlines haven’t already taken that leap). And while it’s true that there is no quick fix for the United States shale industry’s myriad woes, a slow recovery is possible, and even likely. As Rig Zone reports, while the short-term outlook is grim, “at the same time, an agile group of shale players with viable acreages saw the approaching near-term abyss. These firms scaled back their respective operations down in such a way that it left room for a slow but sure footed bounce-back within the same tumultuous cycle.”

As Oilprice reported back in May, “U.S. shale needs to slow down to survive.” The kind of long-term strategy and measured decision-making described by Rig Zone is crucial to keeping shale alive. Panicked decisions to reopen shut-in wells all at once will destroy the industry’s chances of bouncing back. “With WTI futures now firmly above $30 and having even flirted with $40, it is these very companies who are leading a slow recovery,” the report continues. “Their ranks include Parsley Energy, a company which demanded a coordinated oil production cut in Texas, and having failed to get one voluntarily cut 20 percent of its 126,000 bpd output.”

The road to recovery in the Permian will be slow, but steady, and it certainly will not reward impatience. But for those companies who are able to hang on--and, crucially, are able to work together to build a coordinated recovery--there is still hope for the future. The permian of the future, however, will never reach the heights of the shale revolution.