據世界石油巴黎報道，國際能源署(IEA)日前上調了其對今年全球石油需求的預測，但同時警告稱，疫情的蔓延對未來全球石油需求前景構成了風險。但IEA表示，今年全球煉油活動的降幅將超過其6月份的預期，而明年的增幅將低于預期。

總部位于巴黎的IEA把今年全球原油日需求預估上調到了9210萬桶，比其6月預估增加了40萬桶，IEA稱第二季度全球石油需求的降幅小于預期。

IEA在其月度報告中表示：“盡管石油市場在需求方面毫無疑問取得了進展，但全球新冠肺炎確證病例數量龐大，在一些國家還在不斷增加，這令人不安的前景在提醒我們，疫情尚未得到控制，它對我們市場前景的風險幾乎肯定是下行的。”

IEA表示，許多國家放松封鎖措施，已導致全球5月和6月燃料供應強勁反彈，7月可能也會出現反彈。

但IEA表示，今年全球的煉油活動降幅將超過其在6月份的預期，而明年的增幅將低于預期。

由于航空旅行的減少，明年全球石油需求可能會比去年低260萬桶/天，其中煤油和航空燃油需求減少占到這個數字的四分之三。

對煉油商而言，需求改善帶來的任何好處，都很可能被未來原料市場將嚴重吃緊的預期所抵消。今年第二季度需求非常疲弱，導致大量成品油庫存過剩，煉油利潤率也將受到挑戰。

在供應方面，IEA說，歐佩克和包括俄羅斯在內的其他產油國減產協議的履行率已達到108%。

盡管美國原油供應預計將在今年下半年緩慢恢復以及解除利比亞原油出口不可抗力在今年年底前將給全球市場另外日增90萬桶原油，然而，市場驅動的削減產量也影響到了其他石油生產國，特別是美國。

李峻 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

IEA raises 2020 oil demand forecast but oil refining may fall more than IEA anticipates

The International Energy Agency (IEA) bumped up its 2020 oil demand forecast on Friday but warned that the spread of COVID-19 posed a risk to the outlook. But oil refining activity in 2020 is set to fall by more than the IEA anticipated last month and to grow less in 2021, it said.

The Paris-based IEA raised its forecast to 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 400,000 bpd from its outlook last month, citing a smaller-than-expected second-quarter decline.

"While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress ... the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of COVID-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside," the IEA said in its monthly report.

The easing of lockdown measures in many countries caused a strong rebound to fuel deliveries in May, June and likely also July, the IEA said.

But oil refining activity in 2020 is set to fall by more than the IEA anticipated last month and to grow less in 2021, it said.

Demand in 2021 will likely be 2.6 million bpd below 2019 levels, with kerosene and jet fuel due to a drop in air travel accounting for three-quarters of the shortfall.

"For refiners, any benefit from improving demand is likely to be offset by expectations of much tighter feedstock markets ahead. Refining margins will also be challenged by a major product stocks overhang from the very weak second quarter of 2020," the IEA said.

On the supply front, the IEA said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, had shown 108% compliance with their pact to rein in output.

Market driven cuts had also affected other producers, especially the United States, though U.S. supply was expected to slowly recover in the second half of 2020 while the lifting of force majeure on exports of Libyan crude could add another 900,000 bpd to global markets by the end of the year.