據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站7月20日消息 據(jù)《海灣時(shí)報(bào)》援引普華永道在一份報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，當(dāng)前的能源市場(chǎng)危機(jī)可能使卡塔爾受益，并推動(dòng)第二輪天然氣繁榮。

三年前，全球最大的液化天然氣出口國(guó)取消了對(duì)其與鄰國(guó)共享的北部海上油田的暫停開(kāi)采令市場(chǎng)大吃一驚。2019年，卡塔爾隨后表示，到2027年，將把液化天然氣產(chǎn)量從目前的7700萬(wàn)噸提高到1.26億噸。這一決定的動(dòng)機(jī)似乎既有液化天然氣需求的增長(zhǎng)，也有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈，尤其是來(lái)自澳大利亞和美國(guó)項(xiàng)目的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

今年2月，在全球供應(yīng)過(guò)剩導(dǎo)致液化天然氣價(jià)格暴跌的情況下，該國(guó)決定推遲北方油田的擴(kuò)建，但到2027年的計(jì)劃仍然有效。現(xiàn)在，卡塔爾將從這種過(guò)剩中獲益。

普華永道在報(bào)告中表示：“多年來(lái)最重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是卡塔爾石油公司在11月出人意料地宣布，新的評(píng)估擴(kuò)大了對(duì)北部油田地理范圍和產(chǎn)量的估計(jì)。經(jīng)過(guò)這些新的評(píng)估，北氣田作為世界上最大的氣田也被發(fā)現(xiàn)向陸地延伸，其儲(chǔ)量估計(jì)翻了一番，達(dá)到1760萬(wàn)億立方英尺天然氣和700億桶凝析油。

與此同時(shí)，由于價(jià)格低迷，許多私營(yíng)企業(yè)，尤其是美國(guó)的私營(yíng)企業(yè)，被迫推遲更多液化天然氣產(chǎn)能的建設(shè)。除非天然氣價(jià)格很快提高，一些預(yù)計(jì)的設(shè)施可能永遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)不到曙光。在這種背景下，隨著競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的萎縮，卡塔爾將贏得更多的市場(chǎng)份額，因?yàn)樗匀皇亲盍畠r(jià)的液化天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)。

普華永道分析師在報(bào)告中稱(chēng)：“即使按照目前的產(chǎn)量水平，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織和評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的分析結(jié)果顯示，卡塔爾的保本油價(jià)為該地區(qū)最低。財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)表示，即使在新的液化天然氣產(chǎn)能投產(chǎn)之前，盈虧平衡價(jià)格也應(yīng)在2022年后進(jìn)一步降至40美元以下。”

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Crisis Fuels Qatar’s New Gas Boom

The current energy market crisis could benefit Qatar and fuel a second gas boom, PwC said in a report, as cited by the Gulf Times.

The world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas three years ago surprised markets by lifting a drilling moratorium from the offshore North Field, which it shares with its neighbor. In 2019, Qatar then said it would boost LNG production from 77 million tons currently to 126 million tons by 2027. The decision seemed to be motivated both by growing demand for LNG and also growing competition, notably from Australian and U.S. projects.

In February this year, the country decided to delay the North Field expansion amid the slump in LNG prices driven by a global oversupply, but the plan through 2027 remained. Now, Qatar is set to benefit from this glut.

“The most important economic development in many years was the surprise announcement by Qatar Petroleum in November that new appraisals had extended estimates of both the geographic scope and volume of North Field,” PwC said in its report. As a result of these new appraisals, the North Field—the largest gas field in the world—has been found to extend onshore as well, with reserve estimates doubled to 1,760 trillion cu ft of gas and 70 billion barrels of condensates.

Meanwhile, many private companies, especially in the United States, are being forced to delay the construction of more LNG capacity because of the price depression. Some projected facilities may never see the light of day unless gas prices improve soon. Against this background, Qatar will win more market share as the competition shrinks, as it remains the cheapest LNG producer.

“Even at current production levels, analysis from the IMF and ratings agencies give Qatar the lowest breakeven oil price in the region and the Minister of Finance has said the breakeven price should fall further to under $40 after 2022, even before the new LNG capacity comes online,” PwC analysts said in the report.