據全球能源新聞網8月29日報道，EIA預計，高庫存水平和過剩的原油生產能力將限制未來幾個月油價的上行壓力，但隨著2021年庫存下降，這些上行壓力將增加。EIA估計，今年上半年，全球液體燃料庫存以每天640萬桶的速度增長，今年下半年將以每天420萬桶的速度下降，2021年將每天下降80萬桶。

EIA估計，7月份全球石油和液體燃料的日均需求量為9340萬桶。與2019年7月相比，日需求減少了910萬桶，但比今年第二季度的日均8500萬桶有所上升，今年第二季度日需求同比減少1580萬桶。EIA預測，今年全球石油和液體燃料的日均消費量將為9310萬桶，較2019年減少810萬桶，2021年將增加700萬桶。與新冠疫情相關的經濟活動減少，導致2020年能源供需格局發生變化。

據EIA估計，2020年第二季度全球液體燃料的日均產量為9180萬桶，同比下降860萬桶。產量的下降反映了歐佩克和其同盟國歐佩克+自愿減產，以及美國因低油價而減少鉆井活動和減產。在預測中，全球石油供應將在2020年第三季度繼續下降到9040萬桶/天，然后2021年將上升到年均9940萬桶/天。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網

原文如下：

EIA – GLOBAL OIL DEMAND EXPECTED TO DECLINE BY 8.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2020

中國石化新聞網訊

EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase. EIA estimates global liquid fuels inventories rose at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2020 and expects they will decline at a rate of 4.2 million b/d in the second half of 2020 and then decline by 0.8 million b/d in 2021.

EIA estimates that demand for global petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 93.4 million b/d in July. Demand was down 9.1 million b/d from July 2019, but it was up from an average of 85.0 million b/d during the second quarter of 2020, which was down 15.8 million b/d from year-ago levels. EIA forecasts that consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels globally will average 93.1 million b/d for all of 2020, down 8.1 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 7.0 million b/d in 2021. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns in 2020.

EIA estimates that global liquid fuels production averaged 91.8 million b/d in the second quarter of 2020, down 8.6 million b/d year over year. The decline reflects voluntary production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+), and reductions in drilling activity and production curtailments in the United States because of low oil prices. In the forecast, the global supply of oil continues to decline to 90.4 million b/d in the third quarter of 2020 before rising to an annual average of 99.4 million b/d in 2021.