據阿納多盧新聞10月10日消息稱，根據歐佩克周四發布的《2045年世界石油展望》的數據，全球一次能源需求將以年均0.9%的速度增長，從2019年的2.89億桶石油當量/天增長到2045年的3.61億桶石油當量/天。

歐佩克表示，COVID-19大流行的爆發導致能源和石油需求出現了最嚴重的下滑，并稱這一時期是“自上世紀30年代大蕭條以來最嚴重的經濟低迷”。

盡管2020年石油產量大幅下降，但歐佩克表示，全球一級能源需求在中長期將繼續增長，到2045年將增加7200萬桶/天。

歐佩克預測，同期非經合組織國家的能源需求將增加7650億桶/天，而同期經合組織國家的需求將減少約440萬桶/天。

歐佩克表示，預計全球能源需求增長的近一半將來自印度和中國。

報告補充說:“印度、中國和其他人口不斷增長、經濟高速增長的發展中國家在增加能源需求方面發揮著關鍵作用，而經合組織的發達國家則在提高能源效率和低碳技術方面做出了更多努力。”

報告說，向可再生能源過渡和減少溫室氣體(GHG)排放將繼續得到與《巴黎協定》目標一致的政策手段的支持。

盡管隨著世界從新冠中擺脫出來，石油需求有望逐漸恢復，但石油生產的前景還取決于對價格穩定、石油需求水平回升以及由此產生的投資決定的期望。

報告稱，到2045年，石油仍將是全球能源結構中占最大份額的燃料，占27%以上，其次是天然氣(占25%)和煤炭(占20%)。

歐佩克預計，基于健康的增長速度，石油需求將在2025年達到9440萬桶/天，2045年達到9950萬桶/天。

曹海斌 摘譯自 阿納多盧新聞

原文如下：

World energy demand to rise 0.9% per year to 2045: OPEC

Global primary energy demand will see an average growth rate of 0.9% per year, increasing from 289 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2019 to 361 mboe/d in 2045, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) World Oil Outlook 2045 published on Thursday.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand, OPEC said, describing the pandemic period as “the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s.”

Despite the huge drop in 2020, OPEC said global primary energy demand would continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by 72 mboe/d in the period to 2045.

OPEC forecast that energy demand in non-OECD countries would increase by 76.5 mboe/d, while demand in the OECD would drop by around 4.4 mboe/d in the same period.

OPEC said nearly half of total energy demand growth is expected to come from India and China.

“India, China and other developing countries with increasing populations and high economic growth play a key role in increasing energy demand while developed nations in the OECD are exerting more of their efforts on energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies,” it added.

The transition to renewable energy sources and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will continue to be supported by policy instruments in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the report said.

While oil demand is expected to gradually recover as the world emerges from the pandemic, the outlook for oil production is also dependent upon expectations of price stability, recovered oil demand levels and resulting investment decisions.

According to the report, oil will remain the fuel with the largest share of the global energy mix until 2045 with more than a 27% share followed by gas with 25% and coal with 20%.

OPEC expects that oil demand will reach 94.4 mboe/d in 2025 and 99.5 mboe/d in 2045 based on healthy growth rates.