據3月1日 Oil Now 報道，3月1日亞洲早盤原油期貨大幅上漲，油市扭轉前一交易日跌幅，在美國眾議院批準美國進一步財政救濟后，風險偏好情緒籠罩市場，即使交易商繼續關注即將到來的歐佩克+會議。

新加坡時間上午10:44(格林威治標準時間0244)，ICE布倫特五月合約比2月26日結算價上漲1.14美元(1.77%)，至65.56美元/桶，而4月紐約商品交易所原油合約上漲1.07美元(1.74%)，至62.57美元/桶。

今天上午的油價上漲標志著油價從2月26日的下跌中復蘇，當時布倫特和紐約商品交易所原油基準分別下跌2.56%和3.19%，原因是美國國債收益率上升迅速推高了美元。

不過，油價今早扭轉跌勢，美國眾議院批準了1.9萬億美元的擴張性COVID-19刺激計劃，其中包括直接支付、失業救濟和COVID-19疫苗接種計劃的資金，刺激了油價的復蘇。目前，該方案正在等待美國參議院的批準。

人們廣泛預期美國的財政減免措施將刺激美國經濟復蘇，提高對石油和能源的需求。

AXI首席全球市場策略師Stephen Innes在3月1日的一份說明中表示，“油價今早與多數風險資產同步回升，因美國刺激法案在眾議院通過，且各國央行繼續劍走偏鋒，以抵御市場暗示的金融緊縮。”

盡管出臺了刺激方案，但市場已經在為石油需求前景的改善而開心，這是由于疫苗的迅速推出和全球主要經濟體新冠肺炎疫情病例的減少。

市場目前正密切關注3月4日的歐佩克+會議，預計該會議將為聯盟未來的生產計劃提供指導。

市場分析師普遍預計英國石油聯盟將宣布在3月份的基礎上增產，但供應的大幅增加可能會令市場恐慌，導致價格向下變動。

無論如何，市場分析人士認為，預期需求上升應該能夠適應歐佩克+供應的緩和增長。

Innes說：“3月4日的歐佩克+會議是一個不可或缺因素，生產商面臨的棘手任務是整理各種活動，形成一個皆大歡喜的戰略。但是我們不得不說需要更多的供應進入市場，才能確保歐佩克+滿足不斷增長的需求，并且保持內部紀律。”

馮于榮 摘譯自 Oil Now

原文如下：

Crude oil futures surge, ICE Brent May contract up almost 2%

Crude oil futures surged during the mid-morning trade in Asia March 1, with the oil market reversing the previous session’s losses as risk-on sentiment gripped the markets following the US House of Representatives’ approval of further US fiscal relief, even as traders continued to eye the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

At 10:44 am Singapore time (0244 GMT), the ICE Brent May contract was up by $1.14/b (1.77%) from the Feb. 26 settle to $65.56/b, while the April NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up by $1.07/b (1.74%) to $62.57/b.

The rise in oil prices this morning marks a recovery from the slide in prices seen on Feb. 26, when the Brent marker and NYMEX light sweet crude marker fell 2.56% and 3.19% respectively due to the rising US Treasury yields rapidly pushing up the dollar.

Oil prices however, reversed their losses this morning, with the recovery galvanized by the US House’s approval of an expansive $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package, which includes direct payments, unemployment benefits and funds for COVID-19 vaccination programmes. The package is now pending approval from US Senate.

Fiscal relief in the US is widely expected to energize the US economic recovery, improving demand for oil and energy.

“Oil prices are recovering this morning in line with most risk assets on the back of the US stimulus bill passing the House, and as central banks continue to sabre rattle to ward off market-implied financial tightening,” Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AXI, said in a March 1 note.

The stimulus package notwithstanding, the market was already celebrating an improved demand outlook for oil, caused by a rapid roll-out of vaccines, and the abatement of the coronavirus cases in major economies around the world.

The market is now looking intently towards the March 4 OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to offer guidance into the coalition’s production plan going forward.

Market analysts generally expect the coalition to announce an increase in production from March levels but have cautioned that a large increase in supply could spook the markets, leading to a downward price correction.

Regardless, market analysts believe that the expected uptick in demand should be able to accommodate a moderate increase in OPEC+ supply.

“OPEC+ meeting on March 4 is an increasingly essential ingredient, and producers face the tricky task of sorting through the various moving parts to form a strategy that makes everyone happy. But let’s not beat around the bush; more supply needs to come onto the market to ensure OPEC+ meets incremental demand and keeps internal discipline ducks in a row,” said Innes.