據(jù)3月10日路透社報(bào)道，油價(jià)周二跌至每桶68美元左右，盤中波動(dòng)劇烈，因?qū)ι程匕⒗?yīng)中斷的擔(dān)憂減弱，這與美元漲勢(shì)暫停以及歐佩克+產(chǎn)量限制導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張的前景形成對(duì)抗。

周一，原油價(jià)格達(dá)到了新冠肺炎疫情開始以來(lái)的最高水平，一天前，也門胡塞武裝向沙特油田發(fā)射了無(wú)人機(jī)和導(dǎo)彈。然而，隨著供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂緩解，油價(jià)開始下滑。

布倫特原油期貨結(jié)算價(jià)下跌72美分，至每桶67.52美元，跌幅1.06%。該合同在交易價(jià)格每桶69.33美元有所回落。它周一達(dá)到了71.38美元/桶，是自2020年1月8日以來(lái)的最高水平。

美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)下跌1.04美元，至每桶64.01美元，跌幅1.6%。周一，該合約觸及2018年10月以來(lái)的最高水平。在結(jié)算后的交易中，美國(guó)原油價(jià)格擴(kuò)大了跌幅。

交易消息人士引用美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)結(jié)算后公布的數(shù)據(jù)稱，美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存最近一周大幅上升。本周原油庫(kù)存增加了1280萬(wàn)桶。今年3月至3月5日，路透調(diào)查中分析師的預(yù)期為81.6萬(wàn)桶。

Price Futures group高級(jí)分析師菲爾?弗林在API數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后表示：“這更像是煉油廠仍在關(guān)閉。”上周美國(guó)庫(kù)存創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的下降是在墨西哥灣沿岸煉油廠因德克薩斯州最近的冬季風(fēng)暴而關(guān)閉之后發(fā)生的。

Flynn說(shuō)：“市場(chǎng)似乎對(duì)這些擔(dān)憂有所減弱。它經(jīng)歷了令人難以置信的上漲，現(xiàn)在是回調(diào)的時(shí)候了。”

EIA在月度報(bào)告中表示，目前預(yù)計(jì)2021年美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量將減少16萬(wàn)桶至1115萬(wàn)桶，降幅小于此前預(yù)估的29萬(wàn)桶/日。

石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC)和俄羅斯及其盟友周四決定普遍堅(jiān)持減產(chǎn)，推動(dòng)油價(jià)反彈。里斯塔德能源公司的比約納?通哈根表示:“我們建議保持謹(jǐn)慎，因?yàn)閮r(jià)格當(dāng)然不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)上漲。當(dāng)美國(guó)每周石油庫(kù)存報(bào)告發(fā)布時(shí)，一個(gè)更明確的價(jià)格方向有望很快出現(xiàn)。”

“跳水最近被視為購(gòu)買機(jī)會(huì)”，經(jīng)紀(jì)人PVM的塔馬斯·瓦爾加說(shuō)：“上周的歐佩克+會(huì)議將確保全球石油平衡在可預(yù)見的未來(lái)變得更加緊張。”分析師稱，美元走強(qiáng)往往會(huì)抑制投資者對(duì)大宗商品的需求，這對(duì)石油造成了壓力。 美元從3月1日至2月的高點(diǎn)回落。

馮于榮 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil slips below $68 as rally fizzles before U.S. supply report

Oil fell to around $68 a barrel on Tuesday in a choppy session, pressured as concerns faded of a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia, which countered a pause in the dollar’s rally and prospects for tighter supply due to OPEC+ output curbs.

On Monday, crude hit its highest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, a day after Yemen’s Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at Saudi oil sites. Saudi Arabia said it thwarted the strike, however, and prices slipped as supply fears eased.

Brent crude settled down 72 cents, or 1.06%, at $67.52 a barrel. The contract pulled back after trading as high as $69.33. It reached $71.38 on Monday, the highest since Jan. 8, 2020.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $1.04, or 1.6% to settle at $64.01 a barrel. The contract hit its highest on Monday since October 2018.

In post-settlement trade, U.S. crude extended losses. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply in the most recent week, according to trading sources, citing data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute released after settlement.

Crude inventories rose by 12.8 million barrels in the week

to March 5, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 816,000 barrels, sources said. [L1N2L72S5]

“This is more of the same as refineries remain shut down,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures group, speaking after the API data was released.

Last week’s record decline in U.S. inventories came after the shutdown of Gulf Coast refineries due to the recent winter storm in Texas.

“The market seems to be softening on those concerns. It’s had an incredible run, and it’s due for a correction,” Flynn said.

Official figures from the EIA are expected Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

In a monthly report, the EIA said it now expects U.S. crude oil production to decline by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.15 million bpd, a smaller decline than its previous forecast of a 290,000-bpd drop. [L1N2L71PL]

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus Russia and allies, a group known as OPEC+, decided on Thursday to broadly stick to output cuts, fueling a rally.

“Caution is advised as prices are, of course, not going to rise forever,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy. “A more definite price direction is expected soon, when the U.S. weekly oil inventory reports” are released.

“Dips have been lately viewed as buying opportunities,” said Tamas Varga of broker PVM. “Last week’s OPEC+ meeting will ensure that the global oil balance will get tighter in the foreseeable future.”

A stronger U.S. dollar, which tends to crimp investor demand for commodities, has weighed on oil, analysts said. The dollar eased from a 3-1/2-month high reached earlier.