據ICIS-MRC網站3月15日莫斯科報道，根據烴加工網顯示，未來6個月，全球煉油廠將大幅增加原油加工量，以穩定汽油和柴油等燃料的庫存，即便旅行和服務業企業仍將受到新冠疫情的實質性控制。

根據美國能源信息署(EIA)每周公布的可靠庫存數據顯示，第二季度，尤其是第三季度，加工量預期上升以及原油庫存的相應減少，推動了期貨價格上漲，并導致價差收緊。石油市場從去年的大規模生產過剩迅速演變為供應不足，這一點在美國表現得最為明顯。

3月5日，美國戰略石油儲備以外的原油和產品庫存為12.83億桶，僅比過去五年的平均水平高出1%，即高出1,200萬桶。原油庫存較5年平均水平高出6%，即2,900萬桶，主要由于上個月德州寒冷天氣和停電導致煉油廠供應中斷。但成品燃料和中間煉油產品的庫存已降至1500萬桶，比2016-2020年的平均水平低2%。汽油短缺變得尤為嚴重，庫存為1500萬桶，比五年平均水平低6%。

自去年7月以來，原油和成品油的總庫存減少了1.68億桶，在很大程度上扭轉了去年3-6月期間因疫情和沙特阿拉伯與俄羅斯之間的數量戰爭而增加的1.98億桶。未來幾個月，美國煉油廠將不得不加快原油加工和燃料生產，以防止庫存進一步減少。

如果對旅行、服務和國際客運航空的新冠疫情控制放松，將對消費產生更大的推動作用。但有必要強調的是，即使保持控制，防止燃料庫存下降到不受歡迎的低水平，原油加工也必須加快。

石油庫存的枯竭在美國最為明顯，因為美國有高頻率的實時數據，但這種現象是世界性的。

根據EIA數據顯示，自去年7月以來，經合組織（OECD）成員國的商業石油庫存已減少約2.84億桶，抵消了去年2-6月期間增加的3.35億桶的大部分。今年3月，OECD庫存可能會略低于過去5年的平均水平，這是自去年2月疫情蔓延以來的首次。

郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

原文如下：

Global oil inventories to become tight by mid-2021

Global refineries will increase crude processing sharply over the next six months to stabilise stocks of fuels such as gasoline and diesel – even if substantial coronavirus controls remain on travel and service sector businesses, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

The prospective rise in processing and consequent draw down in crude inventories in the second and especially third quarters is what has been boosting futures prices and causing calendar spreads to tighten. The oil market’s rapid evolution from a massive production surplus last year to deficit has been most evident in the United States, where reliable data on stocks is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. inventories of crude and products outside the strategic petroleum reserve amounted to 1,283 million barrels on March 5, which was just 12 million barrels or 1% above the previous five-year average. Crude stocks were 29 million barrels or 6% above the five-year average, mostly as result of the disruption to refineries caused by cold weather and power failures in Texas last month.

But inventories of finished fuels and intermediate refinery products had already fallen to 15 million barrels or 2% below the average for 2016-2020. The gasoline shortfall has become particularly severe, with inventories 15 million barrels or 6% below the five-year average.

Total stocks of crude and products have fallen by 168 million barrels since July, largely reversing the 198 million build between March and June associated with the epidemic and volume war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In the next few months, U.S. refineries will have to accelerate crude processing and fuel production to prevent stocks from depleting further.

If coronavirus controls on travel, services and international passenger aviation are relaxed, that would provide an even bigger boost to consumption. But it is important to stress that crude processing will have to accelerate even if controls are maintained to prevent fuel stocks from eroding to undesirably low levels.

The depletion of petroleum inventories is most obvious in the United States because of its high-frequency real-time data, but the phenomenon is worldwide.

Commercial petroleum inventories in the OECD countries have fallen by around 284 million barrels since July, reversing most of the 335 million barrel build between last February and June, according to the EIA. In March, OECD inventories are likely to fall slightly below the average for the previous five years, for the first time since the epidemic started to spread in February last year.