據石油新聞2021年3月23日迪拜報道，世界最大的獨立石油交易商維多公司亞洲主管邁克?穆勒3月23日表示，由于中國需求恢復以及美國提高其產量滯后，以沙特阿拉伯為首的歐佩克+聯盟和俄羅斯將推動全球石油庫存在今年晚些時候回到2019年的水平。

穆勒3月23日在Conference Connection組織的2021年富查伊拉加注和燃料油論壇上表示，全球石油日需求仍比2019年水平低約500萬至600萬桶，中國的需求呈現上升趨勢，歐洲將在未來幾個月跟進。美國的石油日產量仍然在1100萬桶的范圍內，相比之下，去年年初的石油日產量約為1300萬桶。

歐佩克+產量限制幫助推動了全球石油市場的強勁反彈，3月12日對布倫特原油的評估為每桶69.285美元，這是自2020年1月初以來的最高水平。根據對歐佩克+的調查，歐佩克+聯盟2月份的日產量為3783萬桶，為去年10月以來的最低水平。這是自去年7月全球經濟從冠狀病毒大流行最嚴重的時期復蘇以來，歐佩克+開始縮減其前所未有的減產規模以后的首次月度環比下降。

穆勒表示，“鑒于今年迄今為止歐佩克 +聯盟的凝聚力，歐佩克 +聯盟有望保持市場上一定量的供應，以實現其將陸上和水上石油庫存減少到2019年水平的既定目標。”“市場相信，歐佩克+聯盟將在今年晚些時候達到這一目標，因此我們正在看到油價和曲線的形狀。”

根據歐佩克3月份的月度報告，歐佩克自己預測今年全球石油日需求為9627萬桶，比2019年的9998萬桶低371萬桶。

李峻 編譯自 石油新聞

原文如下：

OPEC+ set to reach oil inventory goal later this year as US output lags: Vitol

The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is set to push global oil inventories back to 2019 levels later this year with demand recovering in China and the US lagging on boosting its production, according to Mike Muller, Asia head of Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader.

Demand is still about 5-6 million b/d below 2019 levels, with China showing an upswing and Europe set to follow in the next few months, Muller said March 23 at the Fujairah Bunkering & Fuel Oil Forum 2021 organized by Conference Connection. US oil production is still in the low 11 million b/d range, compared with about 13 million b/d in early 2020, he said.

Collective OPEC+ production restraint has helped power a robust rally in the oil market, with assessing Dated Brent on March 12 at $69.285/b, its highest since early January 2020. The group's production in February was 37.83 million b/d, its lowest since October, according to the latest OPEC+ survey. It was the first month-on-month decline since the bloc began tapering its unprecedented production cuts in July, when the global economy took its first tentative steps in recovering from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.

"On the strength of the OPEC plus cohesion witnessed so far this year, OPEC plus is on track to keep a commensurate amount of supply off the market to meet their stated objective of seeing oil inventories onshore and on the water reduced to 2019 levels," Muller said. "The market believes OPEC plus will reach that objective at some point later this year, hence the price and the shape of the curve we're seeing."

OPEC itself is forecasting global oil demand of 96.27 million b/d for 2021, according to its March monthly report, which is 3.71 million b/d below the 99.98 million b/d in 2019.