據(jù)路透社4月6日報道，歐佩克+將從5月起放寬產(chǎn)量限制，這實際上是在押注當前疲軟的原油需求將隨著產(chǎn)量恢復(fù)而同步改善。

從歷史上來看，實現(xiàn)這一平衡將極其困難，特別是在新冠肺炎疫情導(dǎo)致全球石油市場受到如此大的破壞的情況下。在疫情影響依然明顯的情況下，歐佩克+決定在7月前將原油日產(chǎn)量增加210萬桶，這個決定看起來似乎很大膽。

歐佩克在4月1日會議上決定，將5月的減產(chǎn)量降至約700萬桶/天、6月每日增加35萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量，7月每日增加40萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量。此外，歐佩克+的最大出口國沙特阿拉伯表示，將在7月前逐步取消額外的自愿減產(chǎn)量，此舉將使日產(chǎn)量增加100萬桶。

上周的會議令原油市場有些意外，此前市場一直預(yù)計歐佩克+將把減產(chǎn)延期一個月至5月份。考慮到多數(shù)煉油商將已經(jīng)完成4月的采購計劃，歐佩克+決定在5月增加35萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量。

6月份新增35萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量對市場的影響可能也有限，因為許多煉油廠，尤其是亞洲最大的石油進口煉油商，很可能已經(jīng)確定了他們的需求和裝貨計劃。然而，7月份，在5月和6月的基礎(chǔ)上，可能會再增加140萬桶/天。

現(xiàn)在的問題是，歐佩克+的說法是否會被證明是正確的，即需求是否可以以市場能夠吸收更多原油的速度復(fù)蘇。

有證據(jù)表明，亞洲對進口原油的需求正在回到2020年第一季度末疫情沖擊需求之前的水平。根據(jù)Refinitiv Oil Research的數(shù)據(jù)，3月亞洲原油進口量預(yù)計約為2520萬桶/天，略低于2月的2575萬桶/天，但高于1月的2458萬桶/天和2020年12月的2321萬桶/天。

2020年3月的進口量為2660萬桶/天，而2020年2月的亞洲進口量為2670萬桶/天。總體而言，雖然亞洲對進口原油的需求正在回升，但似乎還沒有完全回到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。

另一個可能使問題復(fù)雜化的因素是，亞洲的需求復(fù)蘇似乎并不均衡，汽油的表現(xiàn)好于柴油和航空燃油等中間餾分油。這表明輕小型車輛運輸正在恢復(fù)，但工業(yè)和航空需求仍低于正常水平。

周一新加坡航空燃油的利潤率收于每桶3.63美元，高于3月31日以來2.23美元的低點，但仍遠低于疫情爆發(fā)前每桶15美元的利潤水平。

周一汽油的生產(chǎn)利潤為每桶7.20美元，與2020年初疫情爆發(fā)前幾個月的平均水平相似。煉油商可能會傾向于轉(zhuǎn)向生產(chǎn)更多汽油的輕質(zhì)原油，而不是生產(chǎn)更多中間餾分的重質(zhì)原油。這將為一些煉油商帶來額外的潛在利益，尤其是印度的煉油商，它們正尋求將供應(yīng)從歐佩克+轉(zhuǎn)向多樣化，值得一提的是，中東原油的許多替代品是來自西非、美國、南美和歐洲的輕質(zhì)原油。

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

OPEC+ bets crude oil demand will recover as fast as output returns

The move by the OPEC+ group of oil exporters to ease their output restrictions from May onwards is effectively a bet that the current soft demand for crude will improve at the same pace as production returns.

If history is a guide, it will be extremely difficult to get that balance correct, especially in the wake of such a large disruption to the global oil market as the coronavirus pandemic.

With the impact of the pandemic still evident, the decision by OPEC+, the group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, to add back an effective 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output by July seems brave.

The group decided at a meeting on April 1 to ease their output cuts of about 7 million bpd by 350,000 bpd in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and by 400,000 bpd in July.

In addition, OPEC+’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it was phasing out its extra voluntary cuts by July, a move that will add 1 million bpd.

Last week’s meeting came as something of a surprise to the crude market, which had been expecting OPEC+ to roll over their cuts for another month into May.

However, adding back 350,000 bpd for May is a relatively small amount and given that most refiners will have already completed their buying programmes for the month, this part of the OPEC+ decision can be discounted.

The further 350,000 bpd for June may also have a limited impact on the market, again, as many refiners, especially in the top importing region of Asia, are likely to have worked out their needs and therefore their loading programmes.

However, by the time July arrives, another 1.4 million bpd could be added back into the market in addition to what was put back in May and June.

The question is whether OPEC+ will be proven correct that demand is recovering at a pace that will see the market being able to absorb that much additional crude.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures retreated somewhat on Monday, ending at $62.15 a barrel, down from $64.86 on April 1, the day of the OPEC+ meeting. They are also some 12.9% below the peak so far this year of $71.38, reached on March 8.

There is evidence that Asia’s demand for imported crude is returning to levels seen before the pandemic hit demand toward the end of the first quarter of 2020.

Crude arrivals in Asia in March are expected to be around 25.2 million bpd, according to Refinitiv Oil Research, slightly down from 25.75 million bpd in February, but up from January’s 24.58 million bpd and December’s 23.21 million bpd.

Arrivals in March last year were 26.6 million bpd, while February 2020 saw 26.7 million bpd offloaded in Asia.

Overall, it seems that while Asia’s demand for imported crude is recovering, it’s not quite back to where it was pre-pandemic.

The other factor that may complicate matters is that the recovery in demand in Asia appears uneven, with gasoline performing better than middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel.

This would suggest that light vehicle transport is returning, but industrial and aviation demand are still softer than normal.

The profit margin on a barrel of jet fuel in Singapore ended at $3.63 a barrel on Monday, up from the low so far this year of $2.23 on March 31, but still well below the levels of above $15 that were common before the pandemic.

In contrast, the profit on making a barrel of gasoline was $7.20 on Monday, similar to levels that prevailed in the months prior to the coronavirus outbreak at the start of 2020.

Refiners may be tempted to switch to lighter crudes that yield more gasoline, rather than heavier grades that produce more middle distillates.

This would have the added potential benefit for some refiners, especially those in India, who are seeking to diversify supply away from OPEC+, given that many of the alternatives to Middle Eastern crude are lighter grades from West Africa, the United States, South America and Europe.