據路透社4月15日專欄報道——盡管近期的產量和需求數據，加上夏季旅行駕車需求的樂觀前景，可能會為玉米生物燃料帶來一些樂觀情緒，美國玉米預估供應受乙醇產量拖累仍在向多年低點下滑。

　　在截至4月9日的四周內，美國乙醇產量平均日產量為95.1萬桶，低于11月和12月的近期高點，較2017-2019年同期平均水平低6.6%。這種背離常態的結果仍是疫情后最好的結果。

　　最新的產量平均值反映出，與3月底的水平相比，產量略有下降，這在一定程度上與今年同期的季節性趨勢一致。

　　2020年3月底，由于疫情的爆發，乙醇產量首次出現偏離典型水平，因此不應再進行同比比較。2020年之前的三年為“正常”提供了一個良好的基準，因為這三年包含了一個強年產量、一個弱年產量和一個平均年產量。

　　由于近期需求超過產量，美國乙醇庫存已跌至7年低點。截至4月9日，乙醇庫存總計2,050萬桶，兩個月內減少了近16%。由于幾乎所有的美國汽油都與生物燃料混合使用，因此汽油需求趨勢與乙醇產量密切相關。上周，向市場供應的成品汽油平均每天為894萬桶，是疫情期間情況良好程度排名第二的一周。最近四周，天然氣需求僅比疫情爆發前的平均水平低6%，為疫情后的最小利潤率。

　　在錯過了2020年的假期后，美國人渴望在今夏出行。美國去年的旅游支出預計下降了42%，駕車率下降了13%，為2001年以來的最低水平。美國航空客運量下降了60%，為1984年以來的最低水平。

　　但是疫苗接種的進展和旅游預訂的增加已經使夏天變得更加繁忙。美國航空 (American Airlines)周三表示，由于預訂數量的增加，預計2021年夏季其國內航班的載客容量將超過90%。

　　根據美國疾病控制與預防中心的數據，截至周三，超過37%的美國人至少接種了一劑新冠疫苗，23%的人已完全接種。疫苗接種的速度一直在加快，按照目前的速度，到6月初，70%的人口可以接種疫苗。

　　上周，美國農業部將2020-21年度玉米乙醇使用量預估上調了2500萬蒲式耳，至49.75億蒲式耳，較2019-20年度的7年低點上漲2.4%。

　　從2016-17年開始，這一預測比前三個連續營銷年平均下降了9%。自9月1日本銷售年度開始以來，每周乙醇產量比這三年同期平均低了約9.5%。

　　夏季旅行的良好前景增加了乙醇產量和需求在年中進一步接近正常水平的可能性，不過隨著經濟持續從疫情中復蘇，明年的產量將面臨更大的爭議。

　　美國農業部2月份暫定2021-22年度用于乙醇生產的玉米產量為52億蒲式耳，較疫情爆發前水平下降約5%，不過該機構將于下月發布一份新的評估報告。這一數字的任何增加都將加大玉米供應的壓力，其規模可能會比預計的2020-21年的7年低點還要小。

　　裘寅 編譯自 路透社

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. ethanol trends slightly improve ahead of summer travel season

　　Projected U.S. corn supplies are still waning toward multi-year lows despite dragging ethanol output, though recent production and demand figures along with an upbeat outlook for the summer driving season should instill some optimism over the corn-based biofuel.

　　In the four weeks ended April 9, U.S. ethanol output averaged 951,000 barrels per day, off the recent highs observed in November and December and 6.6% below the 2017-2019 average for the same period. That departure from normal is a post-pandemic best.

　　The latest production average reflects a slight downturn from the late March levels, somewhat consistent with seasonal trends for the time of year.

　　Ethanol output first diverged from typical levels in late March 2020 due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, so year-on-year comparisons should no longer be made. The three years prior to 2020 provide a good baseline for “normal” since they contain one strong, one weaker and one average year of production.

　　With demand recently outpacing production, U.S. ethanol stocks have fallen to seven-year lows for the date. Stocks totaled 20.5 million barrels as of April 9, down nearly 16% in two months. Trends in gasoline demand track well with ethanol output since almost all U.S. gasoline is blended with the biofuel. Last week, finished motor gasoline supplied to the market averaged 8.94 million barrels per day, the second-best week in the virus era. In the latest four weeks, gas demand was just 6% below the pre-virus average, the smallest post-pandemic margin.

　　Americans are itching to get out this summer after largely missing out on vacations in 2020. Travel spending by Americans last year plunged an estimated 42% and U.S. driving fell by 13% to its lowest level since 2001. U.S. passenger airline traffic dropped 60% to the lightest since 1984.

　　But the vaccination progress and an increase in travel bookings are already setting up a much busier summer. American Airlines said on Wednesday it expects to fly more than 90% of its domestic seat capacity in the summer of 2021 based on a boost in reservations.

　　By Wednesday, more than 37% of Americans had received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine and 23% had been fully inoculated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The pace of vaccinations has been increasing, but 70% of the population could be vaccinated by early June at the current rate.

　　Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its 2020-21 corn use for ethanol estimate by 25 million bushels to 4.975 billion bushels, up 2.4% from 2019-20’s seven-year low.

　　On average, that forecast is down 9% from the previous three uninterrupted marketing years starting with 2016-17. Since the start of the current marketing year on Sept. 1, weekly ethanol production has averaged about 9.5% below the same period in those three years.

　　Good prospects for summer travel increase the odds for ethanol output and demand to inch even closer to normal levels into mid-year, though next year’s volumes are subject to greater debate as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic.

　　USDA in February tentatively slated 2021-22 corn used for ethanol at 5.2 billion bushels, down about 5% from pre-virus levels, though the agency will issue a fresh assessment next month. Any increase in this number will amplify pressure to new-crop corn supplies, which could be even smaller than the seven-year low predicted for 2020-21.